806
FXUS65 KSLC 022126
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
326 PM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLASSIC FALL STORM WILL BRING GUSTY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO WESTERN UTAH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, DOWNSTREAM
FROM AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. UNDER SUNNY
SKIES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING NEARLY 10F ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, AND CLOSER TO 5F ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND TONIGHT, EVOLVES INTO A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY, THEN EJECTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS SUCH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WYOMING
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS PRECIPITATION EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN UTAH.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-80 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 MPH, HOWEVER STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE OF 45 MPH IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 50% ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SMALL POCKETS INCLUDING ONE NEAR CEDAR
CITY. AS SUCH HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL EXTENT AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
EVENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ATTENDANT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM LOW SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH, THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ANY UPDRAFTS WITH ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP, AND MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE INITIATES CONVECTION
WITH THIS REGION OF ASCENT FROM THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD EVANSTON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY
EVENING, THE CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MAY SEE A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY, WILL SEE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST. MEAN
SNOW LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, HOWEVER
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAY DRAG THESE LEVELS DOWN CLOSER TO 8000
FEET AT TIMES. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET OF 2-5 INCHES IS MOST
LIKELY, AND NORTHERN VALLEY PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 0.50-0.75"
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST BENCHES OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION, WITH I-70 LOOKING LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY DEMARCATION LINE FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION.
AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MIN TEMPS ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OUTLYING VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WY ON SUNDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHERN UTAH. THE UINTAS SHOULD SEE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT THESE PEAK AT ONLY
20-30%. SOME OF THESE SHOWER MAY BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS
IN THE UINTAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE TROUGH WILL
THEN STRETCH AND POTENTIALLY CUTOFF MOVING TOWARD MID WEEK. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE UINTAS MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE THEN STARTS DIVERGING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER TUESDAY. SOME
ENSEMBLES ARE BRINGING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEEK, WHILE SOME ARE BUILDING IN A RIDGE AS THE CUTOFF
RETROGRADES OFF INTO THE PACIFIC. EITHER WAY MID WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE ARE BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND TROUGH OR HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD TODAY FOR SLC. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND DIRECTION AT
SLC. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY FOR
SLC. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE TERMINAL. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ABOUT A 30%
TO 40% CHANCE THE LAKE BREEZE MAKES IT TO THE AIRPORT. THIS IS
LEADING TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION. THE
BOUNDARY COULD END UP STALLING OVER THE AIRPORT AND NOT OVER TAKE
THE FIELD, HENCE THE TEMPO BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z TONIGHT. AFTER 01Z,
SOUTHERLIES WILL PUSH BACK IN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN NV BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE GUSTS ABOVE 25KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
NEAR SEVIER LAKE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAT
BLOWING DUST ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND SOME SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THING TO WATCH WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS A POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE, WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH EAST OF I-15.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
POTENTIALLY CENTRAL UTAH, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO NEAR 9000
FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF .50" ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN UTAH, WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 9000
FEET. THE CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL WHERE TOTALS AROUND .25" ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN .10"
ACROSS THE VALLEYS. LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEAMAN
LONG TERM...NEGRETE/CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...NEGRETE/CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
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