545  
FXUS65 KSLC 032124  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
324 PM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A STRONG EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND  
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH  
THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW  
FOR SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A POTENT EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO  
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BRINGING  
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND  
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITHIN A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THESE  
HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, AND  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,  
 
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT  
BASIN, AND WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS  
STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN NV, AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD  
REACHING NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE  
WASATCH FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY  
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE BRINGING A PERIOD  
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
FILLING IN BEHIND THIS LINE WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AS SUCH EXPECT FAIRLY  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE  
MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND  
CONVECTIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE  
DRAGGED AS LOW AS 8000 FEET WITH TOTALS OF 2-5" MAINLY ABOVE 9000  
FEET. RAIN TOTALS ACROSS MOST NORTHERN UTAH LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE  
IN THE 0.50-0.75" RANGE, WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH LIKELY ALONG THE  
EAST BENCHES. AMOUNTS WILL TREND LOWER FROM UTAH COUNTY SOUTHWARD  
INTO CENTRAL UTAH, WITH MINIMAL PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.  
 
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH COOLER SATURDAY...GENERALLY 20-25F  
LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, AND 10-15F COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN  
UTAH. THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT ON SUNDAY, BUT  
TEMPERATURE SWILL REMAIN ROUGHLY 10F BELOW CLIMO ACROSS NORTHERN  
UTAH.  
 
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF A  
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF BAJA WHICH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY  
CONSISTENTLY BRINGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE  
FAMILIES WITH SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS MOISTURE SHUNTED  
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH, AS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THERE GIVEN THE  
ORIGIN OF THE MOISTURE, BUT A LOT OF MOVING PARTS WILL NEED TO  
COME INTO ALIGNMENT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, WITH  
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z BEFORE WINDS LIGHTEN  
UP THEREAFTER. SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF ERRATIC  
WINDS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 02-05Z THIS  
EVENING. A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONT  
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL TO YIELD MVFR VIS AND A 30%  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY  
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, ROUGHLY AFTER 10Z SATURDAY.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION  
OF THE AIRSPACE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.  
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ERRATIC WINDS TO AREA  
TERMINALS, IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND BRIEF  
HEAVY RAINFALL. A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE COLD  
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING  
EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING, YIELDING VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS TO  
MVFR. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR MOST  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY.  
 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE REMAINS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS  
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING  
STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS  
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WITH FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND HAIL ALL POSSIBLE.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE.  
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET  
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH. STORM  
TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH  
OF NORTHERN UTAH WITH LESSER TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. LITTLE  
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.  
 
A COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, BEFORE A  
WARMING AND DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LATE IN  
THE WEEK IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKELY A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE  
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD  
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ115-122.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ119-126.  
 
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SEAMAN  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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