729  
FXUS65 KSLC 052148  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
348 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS PACIFIC  
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLIPPING NORTHERN UT AND SW WY RESULTING IN  
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY AND  
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONGSIDE. ON THURSDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE  
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONING US TO A WET  
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
* SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR  
NORTHERN UT, SW WY, AND THE UINTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SUBSIDE  
FOLLOWING SUNSET.  
* SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS WITH A  
WARM UP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.  
* TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS PRISCILLA, AND PERHAPS MOISTURE FROM  
HURRICANE OCTAVE WILL PHASE INTO AN INCOMING TROUGH. THIS WILL  
SHIFT THE FORECAST AREA BACK INTO A WETTER, AND PERHAPS COOLER  
PATTERN AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND.  
 
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT PASSED  
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UT, SW WY, AND THE UINTAS THIS AFTERNOON.  
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY  
FILLING IN BEHIND A STREAM OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE  
PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH ASCENT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GIVE US  
ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDE FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE  
AREA FURTHER EAST INTO WY.  
 
BY TOMORROW, A REX BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN U.S.  
COASTLINE AS A LOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH  
RIDGING TO ITS NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, DRY AND BENIGN CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WARMING  
TREND THROUGH LATE THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY. HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND THIS WARM UP AS THE  
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY RETROGRESSES TOWARD THE  
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL  
DIVE SOUTH DOWN THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND MEANDER JUST OFF THE  
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED  
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAKING WAY FOR THIS TROUGH  
TO PUSH INLAND. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TS  
PRISCILLA AND PERHAPS EVEN HURRICANE OCTAVE WILL PHASE INTO THE  
TROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY UP TO THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
APPEARS TO FAVOR THIS SOLUTION MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THOUGH  
TIMING STILL APPEARS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH WILL PUSH  
INLAND. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY HAVE A WIDE SPREAD  
AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF AMOUNTS, IT  
DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA IN  
SOME CAPACITY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. IT DOES ALSO APPEAR THAT SOME  
AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS, THOUGH LOCATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO IRON OUT AT THIS TIME  
GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING  
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
WINDS OVERNIGHT.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS  
THE FAR NORTHERN AIRSPACE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SKIES  
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
THIS PAST WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PASSING  
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN UT  
AND THE UINTAS. BY THIS EVENING, THE ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE MAKING  
WAY FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING  
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING  
HUMIDITIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AS A  
RESULT.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...WORSTER  
AVIATION...MAHAN  
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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