924  
FXUS65 KSLC 070909  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
309 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST  
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND. TROPICAL  
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A  
COLD TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
 
THE REX BLOCK PATTERN  
CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN  
LATER TODAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES THE RIDGE  
EASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY OVER  
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH MAXES RUNNING NEAR TO A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH PARKS ITSELF ALONG THE COAST ON  
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA,  
HELPING TEMPERATURES WARM TO IN EXCESS OF 5F ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMALS WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PERSIST.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
 
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP THURSDAY  
WILL BE SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A  
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE PACNW COAST. REMNANTS FROM A  
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL  
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MODELS BRINGING  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75-1" FOR SOUTHERN UTAH. FORCING WILL  
BE LIMITED, WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, BUT THAT  
WILL BE ENOUGH WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN UTAH. RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT TAPER OFF  
INTO THE EVENING, BUT RATHER PICK UP WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE  
ADVECTION AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.  
 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1-1.25" FOR SOUTHERN UTAH  
FRIDAY. FORCING WILL BE BETTER COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE LONGWAVE  
TROUGH TRACKS INLAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM FRIDAY WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE GREATEST RAINFALL  
TOTALS WILL BE, BUT MODELS HIGHLIGHT AN AREA FROM ROUGHLY ST. GEORGE  
THROUGH MOAB AND SOUTH AS WHERE THE CORE OF THE MOST PRECIPITATION  
WILL BE. LOCATIONS IN THAT PORTION OF UTAH ARE FORECAST FOR 1-2" OF  
RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD RISK  
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE FOR PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE SLOT CANYONS, BUT  
ALSO URBAN AREAS.  
 
MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH FRIDAY,  
WITH 0.75-1" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR  
TO SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT  
FRIDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH  
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD  
FRONT WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN UTAH SOMETIME SATURDAY, MOST LIKELY  
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE LONGWAVE  
TROUGH TRACKS CLOSER, RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE  
CONSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SOUTHERN  
UTAH, WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 0.5-1.0" FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 80F. CONDITIONS  
WILL COOL EACH DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS IN. BEHIND THE FRONT  
SUNDAY, VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF  
UTAH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO ROUGHLY 7500 FEET, WITH ACCUMULATING  
MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY  
RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES FOR THE WASATCH AND UINTA MOUNTAINS.  
 
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION  
ENDING. LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK  
WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH  
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
18Z.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW OVER  
THE AREA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOVING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE  
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, DRAWING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TROPICAL  
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY THURSDAY, SPREADING INTO THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL  
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN AND  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH, THROUGH SATURDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM  
CROSSING THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A  
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN UTAH ALONG  
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN  
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WILSON  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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