392  
FXUS65 KSLC 072130  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
330 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND  
RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD  
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND BRING  
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.  
 

 
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
- A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ON  
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL REMNANTS BRUSH THROUGH THE REGION.  
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLASH  
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS.  
 
- A DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH  
THE AREA AROUND LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO  
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, IT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF  
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FT).  
 
- MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF  
THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IS NOTED RUN  
TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL, THUS CERTAINTY IN MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS  
IS QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LITTLE  
MORE THAN A CLOUD OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN HIGH  
TERRAIN, BUT NOTHING REALLY OF NOTE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY  
SEASONABLE, GENERALLY +/- 5F OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR. A SIMILARLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH  
INCREASING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC  
SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS.  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST DAY IN A MORE ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD  
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA BEGINS TO  
LIFT INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INITIALLY INCREASE  
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASING AT AREAS  
FURTHER NORTH AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS  
TO BECOME MAXIMIZED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE PWAT VALUES  
PUSHING INTO THE 200-300% OF NORMAL RANGE. THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS  
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT  
RAINFALL PRODUCTION, ESPECIALLY WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS OF  
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY(S). GENERAL MODEL  
CONSENSUS FAVORS SOUTHERN TO EASTERN UTAH IN TERMS OF HIGHEST  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THOUGH CHANCES WILL BE  
QUITE ELEVATED AREAWIDE AS THIS MOISTURE LINGERS. GIVEN THE  
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE, CHANCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE NOTED  
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT  
WILL ESPECIALLY BE NOTED FOR RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS RECENT  
BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, TYPICALLY DRY WASHES, AND SLICKROCK AREAS.  
ADDITIONALLY, SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS A  
PACIFIC SYSTEM DEEPENS INTO THE WESTERN U.S., ESPECIALLY SATURDAY,  
AND AS SUCH A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE (PENDING HOW  
MUCH INSTABILITY IS ULTIMATELY AVAILABLE).  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO THEN GENERALLY SUPPORT THE PACIFIC SYSTEM SLIDING  
EASTWARD, IN TURN PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON TO EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE EXTRA DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THIS  
PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE AMPLE MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE REMNANT  
TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE FRONT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, MAINTAINING THE THREAT OF  
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY  
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, FALLING TO AROUND 7500-8500  
FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING BY THIS TIME, BUT  
MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BEFORE  
MOISTURE FULLY SCOURS OUT.  
 
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY INTO EARLY IN THE  
UPCOMING WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME MODEST  
AMOUNT OF LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OVERHEAD,  
BUT IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE  
DAYS PRIOR. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM  
MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY  
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE  
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE OR CUT OFF, AND IN THE LATTER SCENARIO WHERE  
EXACTLY IT WOULD CUT OFF.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS  
ARE EXPECTED AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY SERVING AS  
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE TO WEATHER ACROSS UTAH. A PACIFIC SYSTEM  
WILL START TO DEEPEN THROUGH MIDWEEK, RESULTING TO A CORRESPONDING  
INCREASE TO DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND IN TURN LEAD TO SOME  
MODEST DAYTIME WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. THIS  
MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY.  
 
ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA  
WILL START LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
IN TURN INCREASE, INITIALLY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH CHANCES  
QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHWARD AS MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES. THIS  
MOISTURE BECOMES MAXIMIZED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO  
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL. THE AFOREMENTIONED  
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH  
UTAH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, AND WILL  
USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. AS SNOW LEVELS  
DROP, SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FT) WILL BE  
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...WARTHEN  
AVIATION...SEAMAN  
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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