700
FXUS65 KSLC 192103
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
303 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MOSTLY DRY FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
SEEING A BREEZY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING UTAH'S NORTHWEST CORNER. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. WITH THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING, A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA.
THE TROUGH WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT AND CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH MOISTURE SO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED AT BEST AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE
UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. OF GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MILD TODAY WITH MAXES AVERAGING
5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL BE
RUNNING 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND UP TO
20F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.
GIVEN THE RAPID COOLDOWN AND CLEARING AFTERWARD, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT, WITH MANY OUTLYING VALLEY
LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN
ONGOING AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES IN EASTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY, HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THAT LOCATION.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM TUESDAY)
DESPITE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR ON TUESDAY MORNING, HIGHS WILL
REBOUND CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A LOW OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. SHOWERS MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE
WASATCH FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING , BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
GREATEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE CUTS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
FOR A RATHER MARKED SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BACK TO COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER STOUT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE OF THE 250-MB UPPER-LEVEL JET PEAKING BETWEEN 120-140 KTS
LATE SUNDAY, IT APPEARS THIS AR WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE PENETRATING FAR
ENOUGH INLAND TO BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO FINISH OFF
OUR ALREADY RECORD-BREAKING OCTOBER STRONG. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IS THERE, FINER DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE
DETERMINED BASED ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL JET.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
22Z, WITH GUSTS 30+ KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER 22Z AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY TRACKS THROUGH.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A 30%
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH DECREASED CIGS
BETWEEN 04-08Z. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADDITION
TO DECREASING CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TERMINALS. RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING, BRINGING PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS
EAST OF THE WASATCH AND INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
UTZ103.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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