179
FXUS65 KSLC 230845
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AFTER A PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF UTAH AND UINTA COUNTY, WY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NEAR THE LAS VEGAS AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE
APPROACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH, LARGELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS IS LARGELY FORCING
DRIVEN AS INSTABILITY IN GENERAL IS FAIRLY LIMITED. CAMS SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF ZION NATIONAL
PARK NEAR SUNRISE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND KANE
COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY
UP TO 0.25" PER HOUR, HOWEVER, HREF 95TH PERCENTILE HOURLY
PRECIPITATION RATES APPROACH 0.75" HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. GIVEN
THIS, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
THIS CONVECTION ACROSS MANY OF THE SOUTHERN UTAH NATIONAL PARK AND
RECREATION AREAS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN THE KANE/WASHINGTON COUNTY
CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS MORE REMOVED FROM THE BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING. HREF AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES ARE PALTRY, AROUND 250 J/KG
ON AVERAGE...WITH AROUND 10-15 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORM
MOTIONS MAY FAVOR A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TREND. GIVEN THIS,
HAVE CARRIED "POSSIBLE" FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ALL
PARKS/RECREATION AREAS EXCEPT SNOW CANYON TODAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN SPLIT ON HOW DEEP THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD A DEEPER SOLUTION, WITH A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION BAND SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPEST SOLUTION, WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH IS REPRESENTED
BY ABOUT 12% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 34% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHALLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH BUT STILL BRING A COLD FRONT WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF UTAH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (~54% OF MEMBERS)
ARE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WITH MORE OF
A BRUSH-BY SYSTEM AND THUS LOWER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THAT'S
A LOT OF WORDS TO SAY THAT WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY, A
SUBSET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SOLUTION. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
AROUND 75% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHIFT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN UTAH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, WHILE 25% OF THE MEMBERS KEEP
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, WHICH IS NOT
REPRESENTED IN THE OTHER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS. AGAIN, SOMETHING TO
MONITOR MOVING FORWARD AS THE MINORITY SOLUTION WOULD KEEP EARLY
TO MID-WEEK COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION...KSLC
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
TRANSITION NORTHWESTERLY AFTER AROUND 16Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR
ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH RESULTS IN 30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TERMINALS IN THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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