867
FXUS65 KSLC 232054
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
254 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND UTAH FOR THE END WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY, WITH NORTHERN
VALLEY RAIN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE UTAH
AND ARIZONA BORDER HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ROTATED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW, WITH MUCH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW, STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, PROMPTING SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
RIVERS, CREEKS, SLOT CANYONS, AND OTHER VULNERABLE LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS
EAST AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
HAZE FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN UTAH ASSOCIATED WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BUILD
INTO SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE PACNW.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)
KEY MESSAGES:
* CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOWFALL ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND
SW WY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
* FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AS WINDS CLOCK TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY.
* FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES SEE A NOTABLE COOL-DOWN
ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND SW WY.
TO KICK OFF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST ON SATURDAY, A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL BE PUSHING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CA / SOUTHERN OR WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UT AND WY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY, POPS BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND SW WY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AROUND THIS TIME, GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 8KFT, WITH ANY SNOWFALL OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD OCCURRING IN THE HIGH UINTAS.
ON SUNDAY MORNING, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
UT WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERING IN BEHIND IT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. REMNANT MOISTURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FAVOR LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS AS WELL AS
TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHERE UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY VALLEY SNOW ON
SUNDAY, THOUGH SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BEGIN DROPPING TO AROUND
6500-7500FT WITH THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WASATCH
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY AND HEIGHT RISES INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AREAWIDE,
SHUTTING OFF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN UT
WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH SW WY
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UT RUNNING NEAR-NORMAL WITH THEIR TEMPERATURES.
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS, THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM
FOLLOWING MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENIGN WITH COMFORTABLE
FALL CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH A SOUTHERLY SHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 03-04Z
THIS EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCDC THROUGH AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE CLOSER TOWARD THE EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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