630
FXUS65 KSLC 240810
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
210 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS IN THE STORE FOR THE
BEEHIVE STATE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S FLASH FLOODING IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A LARGE, STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WITH
AN ATTENDANT JET MAX IS SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO BRING A MILD DAY TO THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...BRINGING TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A ROBUST SPEED MAX
WILL CROSS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH PEAK SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 140KTS. THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT INTO
NORTHWESTERN UTAH AS EARLY AS 00Z SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION...WITH STRONG FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ENSEMBLE SUITE,
THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THE BEAR RIVER RANGE IS
AROUND 0.05" TO ABOUT 0.20". IT'S MORE BLEAK FURTHER SOUTH. ALTA,
FOR EXAMPLE HAS A 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE FROM 0 TO 0.07" OR
SO.
AS THE NEXT PERIOD OF INCREASED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SHIFTS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW MORE DIVERSITY IN SOLUTIONS...WITH AROUND 15%
CONTINUING TO REPRESENT A MUCH STRONGER, DEEPER COLD FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SLOWLY SHIFT THE
DEPTH OF THIS COLD FRONT FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH. LOOKING AT THE
BEAR RIVER RANGE ONCE AGAIN 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE IS AROUND
0.10" TO 0.40", WHEREAS ALTA IS CLOSER TO 0.05" TO 0.40"...WITH
THE LOWER END REPRESENTING THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS. IN
GENERAL, LOOKING AT A 1 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR THAT HIGHER RANGE NEAR
THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. GIVEN THESE RANGES, DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO
ISSUE ANY WINTER HEADLINES ON THIS SHIFT. NOTE, HOWEVER, IF THE
MINORITY SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY, SNOW TOTALS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
I-80. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR WINTER CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THESE SNOW TOTALS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT,
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR
ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AREAWIDE TODAY, FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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