230
FXUS65 KSLC 250937
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM, BREEZY FALL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BEEHIVE
STATE SATURDAY. A COLD, PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A RELATIVELY WARM, BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
JET MAX CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A MILD FALL DAY TO THE BEEHIVE
STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THE ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT,
BUT AROUND 50% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT AS THE NEXT
JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING, BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT, NOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. THE 50% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT THE HEAVIER
FRONTAL BAND WOULD SUGGEST THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE COTTONWOODS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.20" TO 0.50"
OR SO, WHILE THE DRIER, SHALLOWER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE CLOSER TO
0.15" TO 0.30", WHICH IS THE DIFFERENCE OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.
THE BEAR RIVER RANGE IN PARTICULAR TENDS TO DO WELL IN THIS TYPE
OF DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGEST
AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES FOR THE BEAR
RIVER RANGE, 1 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS IS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE WITH PLANS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO BE FULLY PREPARED FOR
WINTER CONDITIONS. HIGH ELEVATION SEASONAL ROADS REMAIN OPEN BUT
MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND DIFFICULT AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
LIKELY, THOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM BRINGS THROUGH SEVERAL LARGELY DRY COLD FRONTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT KSLC. MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER ROUGHLY 17Z. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER AROUND 00Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, IN ADDITION TO INCREASED MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INCOMING FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BRINGING DECREASED CIGS/VIS
TO TERMINALS ACROSS THIS AREA.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
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