242
FXUS65 KSLC 081107
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
407 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LATER
IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON IF AND WHEN IT WOULD
TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/5AM MONDAY)
KEY POINTS:
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10F WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
- ALTHOUGH A SHIFT TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN IS FAVORED
LATE NEXT WEEK (70% LIKELIHOOD), THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW THIS WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IF IT DOES
MANIFEST ITSELF.
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST, WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BOUNDARY WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRACKING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR OF BLACK RIDGE CANYON INTO LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY. WITH LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO FURTHER
ENHANCE SPEEDS AND FLOW ALOFT DECREASING, NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30-40 MPH.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY, THEN AROUND 5F WARMER
THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AS RIDGING TO THE WEST SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/5AM MONDAY)
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A LONGWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A MID NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE WITH WEAK FLOW WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SOMEWHAT AND RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WHICH WILL
MUTE THE WARMING TREND A BIT, HOWEVER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH 10F ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN ROUGHLY 10F ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINLY INCREASES BEGINNING FRIDAY, WITH ROUGHLY 70%
OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CLUSTERED AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND
AND INTO THE INTERIOR WEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION SOMETIME DURING
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITHIN THOSE 70% OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS
TROUGH WOULD EVOLVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION, AND THE RESULTANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
JUST UNDER 30% OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PARKED UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH THE TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCREASINGLY FAVORS A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL THIS PATTERN CHANGE
DOESN'T MATERIALIZE AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...KSLC
WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH 16Z, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAST FROM AROUND 16-03Z WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
ENHANCE INTO LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY AFTER 00Z, WITH GUSTS AROUND
30-40 MPH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...SEAMAN
AVIATION...WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page