053
FXUS65 KSLC 122216
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
316 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A CUTTING OFF PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH AND
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO A COOLER AND
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. WHILE LOW CONFIDENCE, THERE IS THEN SOME
INDICATION OF YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THEREAFTER EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
LOCALLY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MIXING HAS
REMAINED SOMEWHAT LIMITED THOUGH, AND MANY SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
SEEING ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME HAZY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, JUST
SEEING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES, AND IN TURN A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
TO CLOUD COVER. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL HOWEVER
ASIDE FROM RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS, AS WELL
AS POTENTIALLY DECREASING THE VIEWING POTENTIAL OF ANY AURORAL
ACTIVITY (SEE THE SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR SUCH
FORECASTS OR MORE DETAILED SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION).
TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND PEAK ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FURTHER ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY DAY
THURSDAY WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF UTAH'S WESTERN VALLEYS.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE MORE ON FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CUTOFF SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN TURN THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR GIVEN THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE LOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY NUDGE DOWNWARD AND SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 9500 FEET.
GENERAL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THAT THIS CUTOFF SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY ON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL SEE A MORE MARKED INCREASE
IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC FORCING GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THIS SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO FALL DURING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP FLOW, WITH OROGRAPHICS IN TURN FAVORING THE TERRAIN THAT DOES
WELL IN SUCH A REGIME. GIVEN LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION, SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 9500 FEET AND ONLY START GRADUALLY
DROPPING THROUGH SUNDAY TO AROUND 7000-7500 FEET OR SO BY EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION TO THE SYSTEM AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH FAVORABLE IVT, QPF TOTALS ARE PRETTY DECENT OVERALL.
GENERALLY FORECAST CARRIES AROUND 0.50" TO 1.00" WATER FOR MUCH OF
UTAH'S MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 0.10" TO 0.40" FOR MOST REMAINING
VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS. LACK OF BETTER COLD AIR AVAILABILITY WILL LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS QUICKLY BELOW 8000 FEET OR SO. A GENERAL 3-6"
ABOVE THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY UP
TO 9" OR SO POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE TUSHARS AND
UPPER COTTONWOODS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IS NOTED AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE. MANY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS CARRY SOME SORT OF TROUGH DEEPENING THROUGH
THE PACNW, BUT DIFFER ON EXACT EVOLUTION, ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CUTOFF SCENARIO. THERE SEEMS TO BE LIMITED
AGREEMENT AMONGST INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS TO HOW
EXACTLY THIS SHAPES UP. AS IT STANDS THE ORIGIN OF THE ASSOCIATED
AIRMASS WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BETTER INTRUSION OF COLD
AIR, BUT AGAIN, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR EXAMPLE, AT KSLC THERE IS
A WIDE SPREAD IN FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES WITH THE 75TH
PERCENTILE AT -3C, MEDIAN AT -7C, AND 25TH PERCENTILE AT -11C. THE
COLDER OF THOSE SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER
ELEVATION FLAKES TO MIX IN, WHILE THE WARMER OF THEM WOULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW FORECAST LEANS
NEARER TO MEDIAN TO COOLER SIDE OF THE DISTRIBUTION, WHICH YIELDS
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 5-10" WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THAT SAID, GIVEN
HOW SEEMINGLY THE PATTERN SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS SEEN FORECAST
STORMS TREND MORE CUTOFF/WARMER/WEAKER (OR A COMBINATION), WOULD
CAUTION LOOKING AT EXACT NUMBERS RATHER THAN HOW IT TRENDS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REACH AT OR NEAR 12KFT
AGL BY SUNSET AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY 03Z, BECOMING GUSTY BY
LATE MORNING AND LIKELY REMAINING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR ALL
REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AND DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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