194
FXUS65 KSLC 131057
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
357 AM MST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
- GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
- DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A CLOSED LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
- A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY ONWARD, WITH ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS THAT MAY BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME.
TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED BETWEEN A
LONGWAVE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENING
OFF THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY AS A
RESULT, WITH H7 WINDS PEAKING AROUND 30-35 KTS EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE TAPERING THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX DOWN TO VALLEY LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH, WHERE WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY CONTINUE TO DWINDLE WITH MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE
INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH ITS
POSITIONING TOO FAR WEST TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOOK
LITTLE TO NONE, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CATCH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE
FRINGES OF THE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE DAY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
THE CLOSED LOW NUDGES INLAND LATE SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, IN ADDITION TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY, BEFORE TAPERING EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
EASTWARD. MOST RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE
IN STORM TOTALS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATING 0.5-0.75" FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA
AND 0.75-1.25" FOR MOST SOUTHWEST UTAH MOUNTAINS. LOWER STORM
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WITH 0.10"-0.40"
GENERALLY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 0.50-1.00" INCHES FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
SNOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND 9500-10000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY, DROPPING TO AROUND 7500
FEET LATE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE HEAVILY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT.
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING LOW. ENSEMBLES SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH, WITH ONE
SCENARIO (CURRENTLY AROUND 70% OF MEMBERS) SHOWING ANOTHER
SPLITTING TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW DIVING TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE OTHER 30% SHOW THIS
TROUGH REMAINING INTACT AND SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
CONTINUED COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS
EVENT FOR FINER DETAILS.
AVIATION...KSLC
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A LATE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN WIND PRONE AREAS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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