983
FXUS65 KSLC 132254
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 PM MST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART AS A CUTOFF SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS POISED TO MOVE IN SOON
THEREAFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS REMAINS
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
KEY POINTS:
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART AND GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF STORMS.
MODESTLY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVE PERIOD.
- A FAIRLY MOISTURE RICH CUTOFF LOW WILL EJECT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
PARTICULARLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.
- MODELS SUPPORT ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
A FAIR DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IS NOTED IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND
SPECIFIC DETAILS, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE FAVORABLE ODDS FOR
FURTHER LOWERED SNOW LEVELS AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY AS A LOW GRADUALLY CUTS OFF ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD REMAINS ENHANCED
AS A RESULT, AND THIS IS HELPING TO DRIVE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
VERY MILD (TO LOCALLY RECORD BREAKING) TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY AS THIS CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL FALL
SEVERAL DEGREES IN COMPARISON TO THAT OF THURSDAY'S, BUT EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO YIELD HIGH
MARKS AROUND 5-15F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. GIVEN IT IS ONLY A
MODEST INCREASE TO MOISTURE, AND PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS, WILL ONLY SEE SOME LOW END ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER SATURDAY ON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DESPITE
THE CUTOFF NATURE TO THIS LOW, ITS ORIENTATION AND TRAJECTORY
ACTUALLY RESULT IN IT CARRYING A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. IVT IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, AND MEAN ENSEMBLE
PWAT VALUES SIT IN THE 200-250% OF NORMAL RANGE. ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY, MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF LOW
END INSTABILITY YIELD SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THESE ELEVATED CHANCES LINGERING
INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW DEPARTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 9500 TO 10000 FEET SATURDAY, FALLING TO 7000 TO 7500 FEET
BY EARLY MONDAY. IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IT APPEARS
IT HAS TRENDED A BIT WETTER OVERALL FOR SOUTHERN UTAH, AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST UTAH. MEDIAN QPF AMOUNTS CARRY PRETTY
WIDESPREAD 0.40" TO 0.90" LIQUID AMOUNTS, PUSHING TO 1.25" TO
2.00" FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER NORTH THE FORECAST HAS NOT
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH STILL ROUGHLY 0.10" TO 0.40" FOR MANY
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEYS, AND AROUND 0.50" TO 1.00" FOR MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW LEVELS, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BECOME QUITE LIMITED BELOW AROUND 8000 FEET OR SO. ABOVE THAT
HOWEVER, FORECAST CARRIES A GENERAL 3" TO 8" WITH LOCALLY UP TO
12" OR SO IN FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE TUSHAR RANGE.
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO CARRY SOME SORT OF SYSTEM
QUICKLY DEEPENING INTO THE WESTERN US BEHIND THE EJECTING CUTOFF.
MOST OF THIS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE AROUND WHETHER THIS NEXT
SYSTEM BECOMES YET ANOTHER CUTOFF ITSELF (~35% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) OR MOVES THROUGH AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE (~65% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). IN THE CUTOFF SCENARIO, THE TAP OF COLD AIR
WOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE LIMITED AND RESULT IN ANOTHER MORE MILD
SYSTEM. IN THE OPEN WAVE SCENARIO, THE TAP OF COLD AIR WOULD
REMAIN INTACT AND SUPPORT MUCH LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN BOTH
SCENARIOS SO FAR MODELS SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AN OVERALL ACTIVE PERIOD, BUT
THE COLDER SCENARIO WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
AND IMPACTFUL SNOW TOTALS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY
GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,
QPF/SNOW IS DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THIS
STILL REMAINS A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WATCH HOW IT
ULTIMATELY TRENDS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS DECREASING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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