701
FXUS65 KSLC 141046
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
346 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING THE THREAT OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, FALLING NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NOTED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A LANDFALLING ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IS NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW, IMPINGING ON
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE FINALLY EJECTING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN TWO
SEPARATE PIECES, ON AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, THE STRONGER SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHAT MAKES THIS STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHAT UNIQUE IS THE ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LANDFALLING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. LOOKING AT THE EFI (EC-
BASED EXTREME FORECAST INDEX) SHOWS HIGH ANOMALIES AND A SHIFT OF
TAILS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN UTAH SUNDAY. NAEFS PW ANOMALIES
FOR THE SAME PERIOD SHOW EITHER MAXIMUM VALUES FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGY OR NEARLY MAXIMUM VALUES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE MAJOR ENSEMBLES TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE MEAN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS (FOR BRIAN HEAD THIS MEAN IS AROUND 0.90
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT). EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO START
INITIALLY AROUND 9500 TO 10000 FEET SATURDAY EVENING, FALLING TO
NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN AROUND 3 AM
SUNDAY MORNING AND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE
COMING INTO PLAY, THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE FOR SNOW TOTALS IS
AROUND 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 12
INCHES IN THE BRIAN HEAD/TUSHAR RANGE AREAS. FROM AROUND 7500 FEET
TO 9000 FEET, THE 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE RANGE IS AROUND 2 TO 5
INCHES. RIGHT NOW, THINK AMOUNTS MAY WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH TRANSPORTATION PARTNERS BEFORE ISSUING ANY
PRODUCTS (AND GIVEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW WON'T BEGIN UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WE HAVE SOME TIME).
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN, SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH WILL SEE AROUND 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISN'T EXPECTED, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE FILLED WITH
LEAVES. NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND SLOT CANYONS MAY BE RUNNING.
AS MENTION PREVIOUSLY, THE NORTHERN SPLIT OF THIS TROUGH WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, MAINLY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PW ANOMALIES ARE STILL QUITE
ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, THOUGH FORCING WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG. GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FOR EXAMPLE AT ALTA, AROUND 45%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AROUND SOMEWHERE AROUND 0.50" OF WATER
EQUIVALENT AND THE OTHER 55% FAVORING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
0.30-0.40" OF WATER EQUIVALENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND
8500-9000 FEET SUNDAY MORNING, FALLING TO NEAR 7500 FEET BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SNOW TOTALS FOR ABOVE
9000 FEET IS AROUND 2 TO 7 INCHES, WHICH IS BELOW THE THRESHOLD
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE WASATCH RANGE AND NEAR THE
BOTTOM OF THE RANGE FOR THE WESTERN UINTAS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
RIGHT NOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER, WITH THE PW ANOMALIES AS
HIGH AS THEY ARE, SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN GUIDANCE TRENDS.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY, ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ENSEMBLES,
AROUND 75% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORED A SOLUTION THAT WOULD
BRING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ADDITIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
TOWARD THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN, CUTTING OFF THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SHIFTING IT DOWN OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THEN FINALLY
EJECTING THE LOW ACROSS THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. MODEL SPREAD
IS SIGNIFICANT TO SAY THE LEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO WHETHER THE
UPPER STREAM TROUGH IS ABLE TO EJECT THE COLD, UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST OR WHETHER THE CUT-OFF LOW IS PUSHED
SOUTH ALONG OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN EJECTING EASTWARD
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL MODEL SPREAD.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AIRSPACE,
WITH LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 18-21Z. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR
ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING MID-TO-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AT ALL REGIONAL
TERMINALS TODAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
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