047
FXUS65 KSLC 142303
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING THE THREAT OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, FALLING NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/5AM MONDAY)
THE CURRENT CUTOFF LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIVE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA, WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT
MOSTLY VIRGA NOT REACHING THE SURFACE, HAVE SPREAD OVER SOUTHWEST
UTAH AND THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH. BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE CONFIDENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADING IN FROM ST. GEORGE AND THE PINE VALLEYS, COVERING MUCH
OF THE STATE FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD BY SUNSET. PRECIPITATION RATES
PEAK LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE PINE
VALLEYS AND THE KOLOB PLATEAU ON THE NORTH END OF ZION NATIONAL
PARK, UPPER END PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THIS FIRST STORM COULD
APPROACH 1.5 INCHES OF WATER. AT THIS TIME, AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK RISING TO SLIGHT OVER THIS AREA SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS LIKE SLOT CANYONS
AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES.
WHILE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH WILL GET INTO THE MIX WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, BOTH
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER,
WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE 0.05-0.15 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, AND MOUNTAINS 0.5-1.2 INCHES. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REACHES NORTH TOWARDS BEAVER AND THE TUSHARS AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS IN THIS AREA ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BREAK MUCH OF THE
FORECAST OUT OF OUR ANOMALOUSLY WARM PATTERN, AND WHILE THE BULK
OF THE COLDEST AIR SWINGS SOUTH IN THE CORE OF THE CUTOFF LOW, AS
IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO REJOIN THE
MAIN FLOW, WE'LL FINALLY SEE RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, USHERING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW. WHILE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT HAS
TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD, AND REMAINS ON THE LOW END AREA-
WIDE, THERE REMAINS MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ABOVE
9000'. SOIL AND ROADWAY TEMPS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING
FACTOR TO ROADWAY ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS, WHICH WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON THE SNOWFALL RATES WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE. A SIMILAR
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT STORY IS REPEATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THOUGH EVEN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, STORM
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER, AND WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/5AM MONDAY)
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AS WILL THE QUICKLY APPROACHING NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL MARK THE PERIOD OF
INFLUENCE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED NEXT STORM. SEEMINGLY THE RECENT
TREND TOWARDS A CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO HAS CONTINUED, WITH MORE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP IN FAVOR OF THIS IN COMPARISON WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. IN THE CUTOFF SOLUTION THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF THROUGH TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WOULD
CUT OFF (ALSO A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY) WOULD INFLUENCE EXACTLY HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WOULD THEN SHIFT BACK IN, BUT IN GENERAL THIS WOULD
FAVOR PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN UTAH. COLD AIR WOULD ALSO BE MORE
LIMITED, GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET, LIMITING MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACCORDINGLY. EVEN DAY TO DAY
TEMPS WOULDN'T CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY, REMAINING FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
THE LESS LIKELY PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE SCENARIO WOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY
QUICKER PROGRESSION, MORE COLD AIR, AND MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WOULD
FAVOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH. AGAIN, GIVEN HOW THIS HAS SHIFTED DAY TO
DAY, WOULD SAY TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, EVEN IF LATELY THEY
HAVE BEEN TOWARDS THE CUTOFF SOLUTION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WOULD FOLLOW THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, FAVORING SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS MODELS SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPENING
DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST IN A MANNER THAT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF STORMS. LIKE WITH THE PRIOR, UNCERTAINTY AROUND A
DEPARTING CUTOFF LOW SEEMS TO YIELD INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY
FOLLOWING SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT THOUGH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SEEMS TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER CUTOFF TYPE OF PROGRESSION. IF NOTHING
ELSE, IT AT LEAST OFFERS A CONTINUATION OF SOMETHING OF AN ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER.
AVIATION...KSLC
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN BROAD VFR CLOUD
COVER, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET, REMAIN SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP BACK NORTHWEST BY AROUND 18Z TO
20Z OR SO SATURDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUD COVER AT AREA
TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL, BUT WILL
START INCREASING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH IN. MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL START TO RELAX FRIDAY EVENING, WITH LIGHTER MAGNITUDES AND MORE
DIURNALLY TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS THEREAFTER.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
FOR UTZ125.
WY...NONE.
WESSLER/WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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