689
FXUS65 KSLC 282253
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD AND WET PATTERN COMMENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS THE FIRST OF AT LEAST THREE INCOMING SYSTEMS PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING LIGHT VALLEY SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN UT.
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
- SNOWFALL WILL EITHER BEGIN SHORTLY OR IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BEAR RIVER RANGE. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS MORE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT AND PERHAPS CENTRAL UT
WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING.
- A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, THOUGH A NOTABLE
COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.
- A SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT UT AND SOUTHWEST WY ON SUNDAY
BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE MAJORITY OF OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKING TO IMPACT
THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR EVIDENT IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WELL, CONTINUING THE PATTERN.
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS, A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH UT
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. WITH
THIS SYSTEM REMAINING BROAD AND WEAK, LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR NORTHERN UT MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE MOST MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
UT WILL SEE A TRACE AT BEST, TERRAIN FAVORED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUCH AS THE COTTONWOODS, UINTAS, AND BEAR RIVER RANGE (PRIMARILY
NORTH OF LOGAN CANYON) WILL SEE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY. THE
COTTONWOODS AND UINTAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A TRACE TO 4" FROM THIS
SYSTEM BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE BEAR RIVER RANGE STANDS OUT WITH
THIS EVENT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING MOISTURE QUALITY,
THOUGH 2-5" IS BROADLY EXPECTED WITH A HIGHER SPREAD APPEARING
EVIDENT NORTH OF LOGAN CANYON WHERE 2-9" MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL USHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, LASTING THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST. ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY
BENIGN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TRANSIENT RIDGING BUILDS IN TO
THE AREA.
RIDGING QUICKLY RETREATS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE PNW LATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERN UT AND
SOUTHWEST WY SITTING WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK, LEADING TOWARD STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH,
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN UT ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED WHAT WE ARE
GOING TO SEE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
ANOTHER FRONTAL FEATURE WILL PASS THROUGH CLOCKING WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED TERRAIN. 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR NORTHERN UT MOUNTAINS RANGE FROM 3-8"
WITH OUR CENTRAL UT MOUNTAINS SEEING ROUGHLY 1-5". THE WASATCH WILL
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS SNOWFALL IS FAVORED WITHIN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH A 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD RANGING FROM 5-12"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LASTLY, THERE IS AROUND A 40-
50% CHANCE THAT THE WASATCH SEES AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 9"(WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS), INDICATING
THAT SEEING HIGHER END AMOUNTS WITHIN THE RANGE IS QUITE REALISTIC
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FLOW REGIME.
IF THIS WASN'T EXCITING ENOUGH, THERE IS STILL A NON-ZERO CHANCE (!)
THAT OUR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT,
OGDEN VALLEY, AND CACHE VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
ISN'T THE STRONGEST, IT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN QUICK SUCCESSION
FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S SYSTEM KEEPING 700MB TEMPERATURES QUITE LOW.
AFTER TONIGHT'S SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND -5C TO -7C BEFORE SUNDAYS SYSTEM ARRIVES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000-4000FT ALONG A NORTH-
SOUTH GRADIENT, INCREASING WITH SOUTHERLY EXTENT. ADDITIONALLY,
700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE COOLING AS SUNDAYS
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WHILE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY SNOWFALL, IT'S
UNLIKELY THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ANYTHING GREATER THAN 0.5" ON
THE HIGH END AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
WASATCH FRONT. HOWEVER, BENCHES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
SUNDAYS SYSTEM, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FILL INTO
THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. AS FAR AS CONFIDENCE INTERVALS GO, TEMPERATURES
MAY BE THE ONLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT HOLDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR MORE
TROUGHS PUSHING INTO THE PNW THEN DIVING SOUTH, THOUGH AMPLITUDE OF
EACH INCOMING TROUGH AND EASTERN/WESTERN/SOUTHERN EXTENT REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS OF NOW, AROUND 3 POSSIBILITIES ARE MODELED
REGARDING THE OUTCOME OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ON TUESDAY (33% PROBABILITY FOR EACH).
1). A WESTERN AND DEEPER (STRONGER) SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN UT / SOUTHWEST WY.
2). A BROAD (WEAKER) SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHERN UT / SOUTHWEST WY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
3). A BROAD AND DEEPER (STRONGER) SOLUTION FAVORING INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY FAVOR VALLEY SNOWFALL AS WELL AS IT
DRAWS DOWN INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR, DROPPING SNOW LEVELS MARKEDLY.
AS SUCH, IT IS TOO SOON TO IRON OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS GIVEN EACH
SCENARIO HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF OCCURRING AS OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THANKFULLY, EACH SOLUTION PROVIDES AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF IMPROVING
SNOWPACK ACROSS NORTHERN UT GIVEN THIS NOVEMBER HAS BEEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY.
FOLLOWING THE THIRD SYSTEM MIDWEEK, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A NEAR 50/50 SPLIT AS TO IF WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE TROUGHING PATTERN, OR IF A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
BRING AN END TO THE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION...KSLC
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A WINDOW FOCUSED WITHIN THE 03-10Z WINDOW,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DUE TO
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY SHIFTING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL
WASATCH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SAID, ALL TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
IN THE NORTH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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