048
FXUS65 KSLC 011033
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
333 AM MST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR BOTH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z/5PM THURSDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN HAS SUPPORTED CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THUS QUITE THE CHILLY MORNING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE
TO BREAK OUT OF THE 30S ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT, AND TOP OUT IN
THE 50S ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY.
THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF, AS ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM IS
SLATED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE TRACKING SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
SUCH THAT IT WILL LACK AN EFFICIENT MOISTURE TAP GIVEN ITS ORIGIN
FROM INTERIOR CANADA, THOUGH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME MAY ALLOW THIS STORM TO PRODUCE A BIT MORE
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS, AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
VALLEY SNOWFALL.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY BEGIN ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH, ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, EARLY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FAVOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF UTAH. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IN WHICH PEAK
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY. H7 TEMPERATURES
DROP TO -10C ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH
SUPPORTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO ALL VALLEY LEVELS. BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE HOLDS
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 0.5-1.0" FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT; 2-4" FOR BENCHES, PORTIONS OF
DAVIS/WEBER COUNTY, AND THE WASATCH BACK. NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 4-10", THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
OVERPERFORMANCE IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS IF SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
CAN BE REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
THE REGION.
LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)
A DOMINANT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MAINTAINING A COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD AND
STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SETTLED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY DECEMBER AS MOST VALLEYS REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.
THIS UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BEGINNING FRIDAY, ALLOWING
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND POTENTIALLY NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. ENSEMBLE FAMILIES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION, WITH DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES CLUSTERING AROUND HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED JET AXIS
SETTLES, WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE FORECAST
AREA, AND HOW FAR SOUTH THAT MOISTURE EXTENDS. REGARDLESS, THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL ARRIVE
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH THE MOIST LIKELY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
COMING SATURDAY FOCUSED ON NORTHERN UTAH. AREAS NORTH OF I-80
INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER AND NORTHERN WASATCH RANGES, AS WELL AS
ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL BE FAVORED WITHIN THIS REGIME, WITH
THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASING DECREASING THE FURTHER
SOUTH YOU GO OWING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE JET PLACEMENT. WITH THIS
MORE MILD WESTERLY FLOW, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MOST VALLEY
FLOORS AS TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS TO NUDGE THE EASTERN PACIFIC JET A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
MILD AIRMASS.
AVIATION...KSLC
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, PREVAILING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MID-TO-HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
TRANSITIONING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 12Z. WINDS RETURN BACK
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 19Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND
THE EXITING STORM EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT KEVW
WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE MID-TO-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AREAWIDE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WHITLAM
LONG TERM...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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