885
FXUS65 KSLC 031101
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
401 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR ONGOING COLD STORM IS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGS VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW AND CONSIDERABLE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING, TAPERING OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WARMER, WETTER STORM BRINGS CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND
HEAVY NORTHERN MOUNTAIN STORM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF SNOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
TOOELE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST DESERT EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MID- MORNING. ANOTHER MORE DISORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS
ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO PIVOT OUT
OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AREAWIDE, SAVE
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE TODAY, IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT SNOWFALL, FOG- PRONE AREAS LIKE THE CACHE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF UINTA COUNTY, WYOMING MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
FOG (POGONIP, IF YOU WILL) LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY THURSDAY, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL JET RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST
PACIFIC RIDGE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS JET WILL TRANSPORT
ROBUST PACIFIC MOISTURE TO NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, AND
AS SUCH WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HEAVIEST PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD, WITH
A SECONDARY, ALBEIT WEAKER MAX LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THIS STORM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE PACIFIC, WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS ALL SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH BEFORE SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LIFT OFF VALLEY FLOORS
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AT THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY SNOW LEVELS INCREASE. THE WARMER SCENARIO (AROUND A
75% CHANCE) BRINGING NO ACCUMULATIONS TO VALLEY FLOORS AND 1 TO 2
INCHES ON THE BENCHES). THE COOLER SCENARIO (25% CHANCE) COULD
BRING A TRACE TO 1 INCH OF SNOW TO VALLEY FLOORS AND 2 TO 5
INCHES ON THE BENCHES.
FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
UPPER COTTONWOODS AND BEN LOMOND AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. JUST HOW HEAVY REMAINS THE
QUESTION, GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL BE KEY, AS GREATEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY IT. AROUND 30% OF GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS
THIS JET A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST. RECENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD THE SPREAD IS AROUND 8 TO 18 INCHES
FOR MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WASATCH
AND BEAR RIVER RANGE FAVORED UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. AREAS FAVORED
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE A 25TH-75TH RANGE OF AROUND 1 TO 3
FEET, LOCALLY UP TO 4 FEET FOR THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS EVENT GIVEN POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN ROAD
IMPACTS.
AVIATION...KSLC
IFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING,
MOVING INTO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING (ROUGHLY BETWEEN 16-18Z).
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 04-06Z THIS EVENING,
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SOUTHERN UTAH TERMINALS, EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION, WITH MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-18Z.
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST FOR MOST REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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