051
FXUS65 KSLC 222152
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
252 PM MST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL RECORD TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- A LANDFALLING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET TO MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE BRAIN
HEAD AREA, THE TUSHARS, AND NEAR BOULDER MOUNTAIN. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS, BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE HEAVIEST RAIN, BELOW 8000 FEET OR SO, WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ENHANCED RUNOFF IS LIKELY
ACROSS THIS AREA, WITH ALL STREAMS, SLOT CANYONS, AND OTHER
WATERWAYS RUNNING HIGH.
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY FALLING SNOW
LEVELS, REACHING AS LOW AS 6000 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING TO FALL TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR THE VALLEY FLOORS
OF NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING A BREEZY AND
RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY'S MOISTURE HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING, WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE AGAIN
AVERAGING 20F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH SALT LAKE CITY
EXCEEDING TODAY'S DAILY RECORD HIGH BY 10F.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY AND
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH OUR SOUTHWEST
FLOW TAPPING INTO DEEP ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE, DRAWING IT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION (8000-9000 FEET+) SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH,
SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, BUT SOUTHWEST UTAH SHOULD GET GOING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION, WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT IN
THIS WARM AIRMASS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UTAH MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE
BRIAN HEAD AREA AND THE TUSHAR MOUNTAINS, BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SMALL AREA OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS
AND REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN APPROXIMATELY
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. GIVEN THE
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY, HAVE ALSO HELD OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL WIND
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST, UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO A COLD ADVECTION REGIME LATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY,
BRINGING GRADUALLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
DROP INTO THE 5,500-6,500 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AS LOW AS NORTHERN UTAH VALLEY
FLOORS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION MARK IS HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND HOW
WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE AS THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING AND
WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WIDESPREAD FOR NORTHERN UTAH ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING MOST
PRECIPITATION ENDING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS, THE CHANCE OF VALLEY
ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS LOW, AROUND 20 PERCENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA, AT LEAST FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION...KSLC
MINIMAL PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. STRONG PACIFIC JET TO YIELD ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN ADDITION TO PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS (~20-30 KTS),
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT INCREASE MUCH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
STRONG WESTERLY PACIFIC JET
WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN THE ONGOING PATTERN AT AREA TERMINALS, WITH
ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN A CORRESPONDING
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. AT MANY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY MORE NORTHERN
AND EXPOSED LOCATIONS, THIS JET WILL ALSO YIELD GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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