374
FXUS65 KSLC 062239
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
339 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO ALL OF UTAH'S
MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MANY VALLEYS WILL SEE
SNOW AS WELL, BRINGING TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE TO THE CACHE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH
FRONT.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING HIGHER
TOTALS TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY,
BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DECREASING VISIBILITY AND DETERIORATING AIR
QUALITY IN THOSE VALLEYS PRONE TO INVERSIONS.
DISCUSSION
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE UNDER A DRY AND MILD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST: ONE NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, AND A COLD PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO UTAH'S
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH SOME VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD SYSTEM, UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION RATES
LOOK LIGHT, WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY STAYING ABOVE VALLEY
FLOORS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT, MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY TO MID MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH FOR THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE PORTIONS OF THIS
FORECAST: SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR ALL OF UTAH'S
MOUNTAINS, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE CACHE VALLEY AND A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WASATCH FRONT THAT WILL BRING TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THOUGH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE COMBINATION OF COMMUTE
IMPACTS AND THE LACK OF VALLEY SNOW THIS SEASON MAKE SUCH AN
ADVISORY SEEM PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY
THAT REMAIN. FIRST IS REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MAJORITY OF HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
LIMITING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS, WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SNOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS,
THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS IS A BIT
HIGHER THAN USUAL. THE SECOND WILDCARD IS THE GREAT SALT LAKE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A HIGH CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE FLOW FAVORING AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREAT SALT LAKE, SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A BIT THERE.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH, IN A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW, WOULD FAVOR THE
TOOELE VALLEY AND WESTERN SALT LAKE COUNTY MORE. INSTABILITY
REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAKE AND
THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND SHEAR COULD POSE
A PROBLEM AS WELL. FINALLY, THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS IS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW STRONG THE
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
FOR THOSE VALLEYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH, HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THOSE AREAS AT
THIS TIME.
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND, RESULTING IN A LONG PERIOD OF DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST ALOFT.
THIS ALSO MEANS THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DECREASING VISIBILITY
AND AIR QUALITY FOR THOSE VALLEYS PRONE TO INVERSIONS BEGINNING
LATE THIS WEEK. THE COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW COVER COULD MAKE THESE INVERSIONS A BIT MORE
STUBBORN THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS SEASON.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL. DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EARLY EVENING WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHTER DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
UTZ102>105-107-108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ110.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ111>113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
UTZ117-125.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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