835
FXUS65 KSLC 070955
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
255 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN UT BEGIN THIS
EVENING.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK
OCCURRING THURSDAY AM. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
- FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY AM, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE SL VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE
TOOELE VALLEY THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY ALSO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST, PERHAPS EVEN BEYOND.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
INVERSIONS.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PNW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND MILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BOTH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY
PHASE TOGETHER OVER TIME AND WITH EASTERN EXTENT, WITH THE RESULTANT
LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTH TOWARD AZ. THIS TROUGH
EVOLUTION WILL ENABLE MARKEDLY COLDER AIR COMPARED TO ANY OTHER
SYSTEM WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON, BRINGING TEMPERATURES AT
700MB RANGING FROM -15C TO -17C, RESULTING IN OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE
SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE
TOOELE VALLEY THIS SEASON.
INITIALLY, ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH DIVING DOWN FROM THE
PNW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING HIGHER POPS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY GIVEN OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT, THOUGH ISOLATED VALLEY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UT
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~50% POPS OR LESS).
GIVEN ANTECEDENT WARM CONDITIONS, SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 5500-
6000FT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ON THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN UT
USHERING IN NORTHWEST WINDS. A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN POPS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SOMEWHAT STRONGER
ASCENT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY OCCUR AS RAIN THOUGH MIXED WINTRY
PRECIP CAN'T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN COMES MORE TERRAIN INDUCED SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN UT,
BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO ALL OF OUR MOUNTAINS, WITH POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN UT, AND VALLEY
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE.
CONCERNING VALLEY SNOWFALL, AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHTS FORECAST GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE THE LAKE
EFFECT BAND WILL ULTIMATELY SET UP AND WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY. CURRENTLY, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT KSLC REMAINS AROUND 3-4" WITH A RANGE SPANNING FROM NOTHING TO
OVER 10". HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW REACHES THE EVENT, THOUGH LEAVE MUCH
TO BE DESIRED AS THE HRRR AND RRFS ACCUMULATIONS AT KSLC SIT ON THE
EXTREME LOW END OF FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
~0.5". DESPITE THE HI-RES MODELS HANGING ON THE LOW END, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HANGS ON
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO OCCUR, THE HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN SOME AREAS LOCALLY. UNFORTUNATELY,
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN *WHEN* THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
NORTHERLY, AND WHICH PARTS OF THE SL AND TOOELE VALLEYS WILL SEE THE
MOST SNOWFALL FROM THIS EVENT.
REGARDING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, HOW LONG NORTHWEST FLOW HANGS AROUND IS
ALSO QUITE IMPORTANT FOR THE OVERALL TOTALS. LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
COTTONWOODS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE THE RANGE AMONGST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS RANGING FROM 8" TO PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 20" LOCALLY DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF OUR OTHER NORTHERN UT MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE GENERALLY 6-12" OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT, THOUGH THE BEAR
RIVER RANGE COULD ALSO SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 20" ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 4-
8" IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 12" POSSIBLE AT
BRIAN HEAD AND THE TUSHARS.
UNFORTUNATELY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING A
NOTABLY DRY PERIOD FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED, AND PERHAPS SNOWFALL
EXISTING ON THE VALLEY FLOORS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY INVERSIONS
APPEARS QUITE LIKELY. THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION IS
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH SNOWFALL THE VALLEYS SEE AND
POSITION OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, YIELDING SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
20-21Z TIMEFRAME, THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 01Z. THERE IS A
20% CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT DOES NOT OCCUR. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING INTO
THE 5000-6000 FT RANGE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY DURING THE 06-08Z TIMEFRAME, WITH
PERIODS OF IFR SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE AIRPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 2 INCHES ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. NORTH OF I-80 RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND RESULTING IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST COMMON AFTER 06Z. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
UTZ102>105-107-108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ110.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ111>113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
UTZ117-125.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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