634
FXUS65 KSLC 072318
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
418 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS WITH MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
- DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AFTER THE STORM EXITS. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR AND FLOW ALOFT TO LIKELY DELAY ANY
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING FOR A FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOCATIONS UP
IN THE BEAR RIVER MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THIS PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OREGON WITH
SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MORE STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO ARRIVE
TO THE AREA AROUND 2 OR 3 AM WHEN SHOWERY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING SOME HEAVY CORES LIKELY CONTAINING
GRAUPEL. THESE WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, BUT COULD QUICKLY CREATE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE OVER FROM VALLEY
RAIN TO VALLEY SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH AROUND SUNRISE. A QUICK BURST OF SNOW STILL REMAINS
LIKELY ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT, COINCIDENT WITH THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH SNOW ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A VORT MAX WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS. MOST CAMS HAVE A LINE OF STORMS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT IT STAYS IN ARIZONA
OR IF IT STRADDLES THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER AND IMPACTS AREAS FROM
HILDALE TO KANAB IN THE FORM OF HEAVY SNOW.
ALL IN ALL, SNOW TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN. THE ONE AREA THAT COULD
OVERPERFORM, AND HAS THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE GUIDANCE,
IS ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR ADJACENT TO THE PAVANT RANGE, INCLUDING
FILLMORE. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW, BUT THERE IS ~15% CHANCE THAT TOTALS COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES
IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE, SNOW WILL COME IN THE FORM OF QUICK
BURSTS WITH TOTALS BETWEEN A TRACE TO 2 INCHES WITH AN INCH OR TWO
MORE ALONG THE BENCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AREAS THAT SEE
ANY LAKE EFFECT. THERE IS ~40% CHANCE OF A LAKE BAND DEVELOPING
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE GSL. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, DEPENDING ON THE DURATION OF THIS BAND. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE (60%) OF LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THAT WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST
POST-FRONTAL. INITIALLY, GUIDANCE HAD MORE NORTHERLY FLOW, BUT
MORE NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT TEND TO DO WELL IN THIS
FLOW REGIME, SUCH AS THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. MODEST AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREA MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS (UP
TO 18 INCHES) AND BEAR RIVERS (UP TO 20 INCHES).
AFTER THIS STORM A MESSY RIDGE WILL SET UP FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW THAT TRANSITIONS TO A DRY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW, GIVEN
THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TROUGH TO OUR EAST. ALL OF THIS TO SAY,
INVERSION DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED GIVEN THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ELEVATED. OTHERWISE, OUR
NEXT STORM APPEARS TO BE FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE. THE NEXT STORM
IN ANY OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE MEMBERS ISN'T UNTIL JANUARY
16/17TH.
AVIATION...KSLC
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING, THOUGH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP CIGS NEAR OR
BELOW 6000 FEET AGL. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT, MOST LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z,
RESULTING IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE
AIRPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 2 INCHES ON UNTREATED
SURFACES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THE MAJORITY OF THE AIRSPACE
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THOSE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, DROPPING SNOW
LEVELS TO VALLEY FLOORS AND RESULTING IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY MORNING, BRING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WITH IT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
UTZ102>105-107-108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ110.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ111>113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
UTZ116-117-125.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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