455
FXUS65 KSLC 032147
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
247 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A GREATER THAN 70% OF AT LEAST 0.01" (MEASURABLE) OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UT AND SW WY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, STARTING WITH NORTHERN UT, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING.
- A SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY PAST THE LONG TERM.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, THE RIDGE IS
SETTLED OVER NORTHERN CA AND WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST WITH TIME
TOWARD NORTHERN UT. DURING THIS TIME, AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MEANDER OVER THE PACIFIC
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST AND PHASING IN WITH THE MEAN FLOW ON
FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WEAK ASCENT AND MEAGER MOISTURE LEAVE MUCH TO BE DESIRED WITH
LITTLE EXPECTATION WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOTABLY ERODE THE PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE,
LEADING TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PATTERN SHIFT AS WE ENTER NEXT
WEEK.
A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES IN THROUGH THE WEST COAST. JUST ABOUT EVERY
ENSEMBLE MEMBER WE HAVE AT OUR DISPOSAL INDICATES THAT A RETURN TO
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY, ONSET OF THE INCOMING WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN UT APPEARS
TO BE THE ONLY MAJOR DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH
AROUND ~60% OF GUIDANCE FAVORING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
UT AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. WITH THIS SYSTEM PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO RANGE
FROM 4-14" ACROSS OUR NORTHERN UT MOUNTAINS. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS
EVENT IS, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING REMAINS SUBJECT TO CHANGE,
BUT THERE SEEMS TO FINALLY BE A GLIMMER OF HOPE ON THE HORIZON.
LOOKING EVEN FURTHER, THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN ACTIVE
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM. LOTS CAN CHANGE AS WE DRAW TOWARD NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA OPEN TO A
NOTABLY COLDER WESTERN TROUGHING REGIME WITH AMPLE MOISTURE GOING
FORWARD.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL
UNDER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NORTHERLY UPVALLEY FLOW
SWITCHING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 04Z, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF DELAYING
UNTIL 05Z. HAZE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
NO SURFACE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH
THE EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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