618
FXUS65 KSLC 051038
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
338 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WARM, AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
- A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS. MAXES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD, AVERAGING AROUND
15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK, WITH THE AXIS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A LOW TRACKS ROUGHLY SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO MAKE AN
EASTWARD TURN OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM, MAKING THE EXPECTED
MINUSCULE IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA EVEN MORE MINIMAL.
BEHIND THAT CALIFORNIA LOW, A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, MOST LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WHILE GUIDANCE
YESTERDAY WAS SHOWING THIS HAPPENING DURING THE DAY MONDAY,
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION, BRINGING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FAST MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL COME WITH THE FRONT, IMPACTING THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST.
OVERALL, EVEN THE MORE MOISTURE RICH SCENARIOS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW FAST THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT LESS COLD WITH THE FRONT,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIMITED VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY AT
ALL.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A BLOCKING RIDGE, THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE AREA
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO MORE
MOISTURE THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT, BUT THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE
DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO WEATHER
IMPACTS TO OPERATIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
REVERT TO A NORTHERLY UPVALLEY WIND AROUND 19Z, WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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