648
FXUS65 KSLC 052201
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
301 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, STARTING WITH NORTHERN UT, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING. MOST VALLEYS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
- A SHIFT TO A COOLER AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CA COASTLINE. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE
INTO THE MEAN FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SWING NORTH, GRAZING
WESTERN UT. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, TWO THINGS WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS TROUGH EJECTION; SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, ALBEIT GUSTY, MAY
FORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
TROUGH WILL SERVE TO HELP BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE
AND CONTINUE PUSHING IT SOUTHEAST.
AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND, A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WITH HEIGHT RISES JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ASSIST IN REINFORCING
WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
SOME WEAK ASCENT WITHIN A DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED
LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN SOUTHERN UT, THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY
NOT RESULT IN MUCH RAINFALL/SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. TRANSIENT RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC.
COME SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NW WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF UT BY MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING WILL CAP AROUND 30-40% ACROSS HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UT WITH LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR VALLEY
RAINFALL ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND TOOELE VALLEY.
COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING A FAST
MOVING CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL RAISE POPS NOTABLY FOR THE TIME. HOWEVER, SPEED,
TIMING, AND MOISTURE QUALITY STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WHICH
WILL GREATLY IMPACT SNOW AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER WHICH HAS ALL BUT KILLED ANY
HOPE FOR ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOWFALL WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM.
LOOKING EVEN FURTHER, THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN ACTIVE
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE
HAVING (THANKFULLY) MOVED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE EARLIER
SYSTEMS. FOLLOWING MONDAY/TUESDAYS SYSTEM, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE WEST IN SOME CAPACITY. WHILE MOISTURE ABUNDANCE
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AND OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGHS.
CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE SPLIT NEARLY 50/50 REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THESE SYSTEMS WILL OCCUR. FOR AN EVENT FAVORING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA, WE WILL WANT HIGHER GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS ALOFT SOUTH OF THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS TO KEEP IT FURTHER
NORTH (INDICATED IN 50% OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE). EVEN IF THE SYSTEM
SWINGS FURTHER SOUTH, AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED,
THOUGH SOUTHERN UT WOULD BE FAVORED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NORTHERN UT
IN THAT REGIME. DETAILS SHOULD BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS,
AND THIS FORECASTER STILL REMAINS HOPEFUL THAT SOME SNOW COULD
RETURN TO UT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT, YIELDING DRY
WEATHER, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND SHIFT TIMING WILL
LARGELY BE AROUND NORMAL DIURNAL TIMES (TO SE ~03-05Z, TO NW ~19-
21Z), THOUGH SOME PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VRB LIKELY AROUND THEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR VFR SKIES AND
STABLE CONDITIONS. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT DIURNALLY NORMAL WINDS AT
AREA TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SW UT TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR MODESTLY GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS (~25-35 KTS).
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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