922
FXUS65 KSLC 212132
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
232 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
A FAIRLY PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH,
AND AROUND 7-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS IS
COURTESY OF COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE OF NOTE ASIDE FROM A GOOD BIT OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND AND SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH
OVERHEAD.
DEEP LAYER RIDING WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES. WITH THE RIDGING, MAY
SEE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE TO SOME VALLEY HAZE, THOUGH THE INCREASING
EFFECT OF THE SUN ANGLE PUSHING TOWARDS SPRING SHOULD HELP ABATE
THINGS FROM GETTING TOO THICK. SIMILARLY WOULD ALSO ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT HOLD ON TO SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND.
A DEEP ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG JET JET FLOW
IN EXCESS OF 140 KTS AND FAVORABLE IVT ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THE BEST
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOKS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION, AND AS SUCH THAT IS WHERE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY. WARM INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 7000-8000 FT RANGE,
FALLING CLOSER TO 5000-7000 FT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
UTAH OR SO. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF COLD AIR, AND THE FACT IT'LL
BE LARGELY COMING AS MOISTURE STARTS TO WANE, THIS LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN EVENT. GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SEE A 60% CHANCE AT AN INCH OR MORE OF
WATER, WITH VALLEYS AT SIMILAR ODDS FOR MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW OVERHEAD, DO THINK THERE IS SOME CHANCE
STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGHER LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
TOTALS IN FAVORED SPOTS, AND CONVERSELY COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
DOWNSLOPING EATING AWAY AT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY RAIN. LOOKING AT
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, THERE IS STILL ROUGHLY 17% OF MEMBERSHIP BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AS RIDGING IS REESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY IS NOTED FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH, AS MODELS
LARGELY SUPPORT A DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF ITS WESTERN EXTENT AND
POTENTIAL TIMING. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS, WOULDN'T PUT MUCH
FAITH INTO ANY NUMBERS AND INSTEAD WOULD FOCUS ON ANY TRENDS. IF
NOTHING ELSE, LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE PLUMES FOR SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AT LEAST SHOWS SOME MEMBERS WITH BUMPS IN PRECIP RATHER
THAN FULLY FLATLINING.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE (~20%) THAT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND
21-23Z, THOUGH IT REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KLGU THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL WIND
SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES. FOLLOWING 12Z, MVFR VSBYS WILL
DEVELOP AT KLGU, PERHAPS DROPPING BELOW 1SM AROUND 15-17Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 18Z AT THE LATEST.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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