836
FXUS65 KSLC 230454
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- A WARM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN THURSDAY, LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PERSISTENTLY CENTERED OVER
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY AND MILD. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY TUESDAY, A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO FLATTEN IT, BRINGING A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TO THE AREA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FLOW WILL TAP INTO
DEEP MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, WITH THAT
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REGION HAS SEEN ITS FAIR SHARE OF
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS THIS WINTER AND THIS ONE, LIKE THE
OTHERS, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY WARM AND SNOW LEVELS
HIGH, PRIMARILY IN THE 7,000 TO 8,000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, LOWERING NORTHERN UTAH SNOW
LEVELS MOST LIKELY TO THE 5,500 TO 6,500 FOOT RANGE, STILL ABOVE
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH THIS IS GENERALLY A HIGHER THAN USUAL
CONFIDENCE FORECAST, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL TRACK AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL COME
WITH IT, WHICH COULD IMPACT MOUNTAIN SNOW DENSITY AT THIS POINT
IN THE SYSTEM.
BEHIND THAT LAST WAVE, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-AMPLIFY ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST, FLIPPING THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND TURNING OFF THE TAP FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES HERE, WITH THE ENSEMBLES FAVORING
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN
INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL
RETURN OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEKEND, MOST LIKELY SUNDAY, BUT
SIGNS POINT TO THE AIRMASS REMAINING QUITE MILD.
AVIATION
LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL THEN TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 20-22Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN, THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY KCDC AND
KEVW). VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST
SITES...THE EXCEPTION BEING KLGU WHERE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 06-15Z (60% CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS).
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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