793
FXUS65 KSLC 240505
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHERN
UTAH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN THURSDAY, WITH DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SEEING A PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW OVER UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 0.10 INCH
SINCE THIS MORNING, SHOWING MOISTURE IS ALREADY STARTING TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE SURGE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS ON TRACK TO RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FLOW TAPS INTO A DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL BRING
PW VALUES, CURRENTLY NEAR MEDIAN VALUES, TO IN EXCESS OF THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY MUCH ON THE MILD SIDE, KEEPING SNOW LEVELS
PRIMARILY IN THE 7,000 TO 8,000 RANGE, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ABOVE ABOUT 9,000 FEET. GOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8,000 FEET
COVER THIS THREAT WELL. THE HEAVY, DENSE NATURE OF THE SNOW
FALLING ON TOP OF LIGHTER SNOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE AVALANCHE
DANGER FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH, WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN
CONSIDERABLE. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER, SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SEEING A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GO, BUT GUIDANCE
THIS EVENING HAS TRENDED JUST A BIT WARMER ON AVERAGE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK OVER THE AREA, BRINGING A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING RATHER MILD.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL
TIMING WITH THAT LOW. GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE OFTEN STRUGGLES WITH
SUCH CLOSED LOW FEATURES, ANTICIPATE THE VARIETY IN THE SOLUTIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 16Z OR SO.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 15Z
BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE-UT/SW-WY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 13Z ALONG THE UT-ID BORDER,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DOWN TO ROUGHLY KDTA-KPUC BY 21Z.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN AT MOST SITES, THOUGH KEVW COULD
START OUT AS SNOW AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
UT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR UTZ110>112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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