656
FXUS65 KSLC 241831
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1126 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION
DENSE MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION TO ABOVE
8,500', REDUCING ROAD IMPACTS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR RIDGETOPS
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
- UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY FRIDAY AND PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR
THAT SAME PERIOD IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING TELLS
THE STORY: A RIBBON OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CURRENTLY STREAMING
FROM JUST EAST OF HAWAII NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN (AND
THUS NORTHERN UTAH). THE 250 KG/M*S CONTOUR OF INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT - A TYPICAL MINIMUM THRESHOLD TO DEFINE AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) - IS SHOWN ON GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS
STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN UTAH, THOUGH DECAYING ON ITS WAY. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THESE EVENTS, VERY WARM AIR IS IN PLACE - E.G. ALTA
CURRENTLY NEAR 40F - AND STRONG RIDGETOP WINDS ARE MOVING IN -
E.G. LOGAN PEAK CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 55MPH. LASTLY, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY ONGOING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS PER AREA
RADARS, ESPECIALLY FROM BEN LOMOND PEAK NORTHWARD.
PER HIGH-RES MODELS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ARRIVE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS A QUICKER END TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
DRYING BEHIND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY SHOWERY CONDITIONS TOMORROW. THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, TERRAIN
FAVORED BY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
TOTALS.
FOR VALLEYS, EXPECT A GENERAL TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN FROM ABOUT NEPHI NORTHWARD, WITH THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM
SALT LAKE TO OGDEN SEEING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. BENCH AREAS OF
DAVIS/WEBER COUNTY HAVE A 75% CHANCE OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH AND
20% CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECTING VERY HIGH
SNOW LEVELS OF 8 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET AND UNUSUALLY DENSE SNOW FOR
OUR AREA WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 5-TO-1 TONIGHT TO
8-TO-1 TOMORROW. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTALS FOR THE FAVORED
AREAS - BEAR RIVER MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WASATCH, AND
WESTERN UINTAS - WILL BE NEAR TO OVER 2 INCHES. WITH THE HIGH SNOW
LEVELS AND LOW SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS THIS ONLY TRANSLATES TO
AROUND 6-16", WHICH IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
TO MOSTLY THE HIGHEST PARTS OF THE COTTONWOOD CANYONS AND WOLF
CREEK PASS. LOWER SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER SUGGEST SNOW
AT LOGAN PASS BY TOMORROW, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS
SIGNIFICANT (30% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 6"). THE HEAVY, DENSE NATURE
OF THE SNOW FALLING ON TOP OF LIGHTER SNOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH, WHICH HAS
ALREADY BEEN CONSIDERABLE. RIDGETOP WINDS OF 80+ MPH WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SNOW LOADING. SEE THE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER FOR MORE
SPECIFICS OF THAT HAZARD.
SPEAKING OF WINDS, STRONG 700MB WINDS COMBINED WITH A STOUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW, LOCALLY NEARING BUT NOT QUICK
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (50% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 50MPH IN THE
BRIDGER VALLEY AREA).
THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK OVER THE AREA,
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
RATHER MILD. CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FROM THE WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, MEAN RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN US, THOUGH A PESKY PACIFIC CLOSED LOW MAY BRING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL TIMING WITH THAT CLOSED LOW (AS IS COMMON
FOR THOSE FEATURES). THAT SAID, THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE TRACK AND
WEAKER DYNAMICS. INTERESTINGLY, EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW IN
VICINITY, TEMPERATURES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
E.G. 90% CHANCE OF HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR SLC MONDAY IN COMPARISON
TO THE NORMAL OF 50. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANTLY-WARMER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS,
WITH A 75% CHANCE OF SLC HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY MAY
RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES. EXPECT TERRAIN OBSCURATION AS
CIGS DROP BELOW 6000 FEET AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE AROUND 21Z. A
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
INCREASED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL FOR MOST REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH STRONG GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE UT & SW WY.
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A HEAVIER BAND MOVING
IN LATER THIS EVENING THAT WILL RESULT IN FURTHER CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
DOWN TO MVFR OR PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FROM KPVU NORTH. ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ110>112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...VAN CLEAVE
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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