054
FXUS65 KSLC 250513
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING AMPLE VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-
ELEVATION DENSE MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM NATURE OF THIS STORM WILL KEEP ANY
SNOWFALL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS 8500FT AND ABOVE.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOMORROW ACROSS RIDGETOPS AND OTHER
HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
- RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS
BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY, SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE STREAMING OVER MUCH OF UT WITH MESOANALYSIS
HONING IN ON THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE STREAMING IN OVER NORTHERN UT.
THIS COMES AS NO SURPRISE FOR MOST ACROSS NORTHERN UT AS STEADY
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW WITH INTENSITY
INCREASING UP TO THIS POINT. IVT VALUES ROUGHLY AROUND 250-300KG/M*S
WILL CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UT INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BEGINS TO DECAY AT A FASTER RATE,
CORRESPONDING WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AN ENHANCED BELT OF WNW 700MB FLOW RANGING FROM 35-45KTS WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTS ACROSS RIDGELINES AND ACROSS
UINTA COUNTY, WY, WHERE GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-45MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. MOST UT VALLEYS COULD GET BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH, THOUGH WINDS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN INTO VALLEYS GIVEN ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UT.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT KEEPING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000-8500FT, VALLEY LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT RAINFALL TO PERSIST WITH NO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A HARD CUTOFF REGARDING WHO SEES ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF NEPHI SEEING MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS, AND THOSE SOUTH GENERALLY SEEING ABOUT A TENTH OR
LESS OF RAINFALL. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT / I-15
CORRIDOR CAN EXPECT AROUND 0.25-0.50" OF RAINFALL THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR ACROSS MOST OF
DAVIS COUNTY AND PERHAPS WEBER COUNTY THAT MAY SEE MORE. THE LOWER
BOUNDS OF THIS FORECAST (25TH PERCENTILE) ARE HIGHER THAN
SURROUNDING LOCATIONS, SITTING AROUND 0.30-0.40" OF RAINFALL WITH AN
UPPER BOUND (75TH PERCENTILE) AROUND 0.40-0.60" OF RAINFALL. THESE
AREAS TEND TO DO BETTER WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
GIVEN LACK OF TERRAIN BLOCKAGE, POTENTIALLY FAVORING THE 0.40-0.60"
RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. THE BENCHES OF DAVIS, WEBER, AND EVEN SALT
LAKE COUNTIES ALL INDICATE THAT THERE IS A 75% CHANCE OF REACHING
AND EXCEEDING 0.50-0.70" OF WATER WITH THIS EVENT, WITH ROUGHLY A 20-
30% CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WITH HOW HIGH THE SNOW LEVELS ARE WITH THIS EVENT, MOST SNOWFALL
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATION LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS STORM MAY BE WARM, THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATION
LOCATIONS WE HAVE SUCH AS THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, UPPER COTTONWOOD,
AND HIGH UINTAS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE AMPLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT. THERE IS, HOWEVER, STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WITH SNOW LEVELS AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL MIX
IN WITH THE SNOWFALL, EVEN AT OUR HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE HREF 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL FORECAST RANGES FROM
4-24" AT ALTA, WHICH IS QUITE THE SPREAD GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS
KNOCKING AT OUR DOOR. DESPITE THIS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
FORMER, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN AROUND ~12-17" ACROSS THE UPPER
COTTONWOODS. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH REGARDING
AMPLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR HIGHEST ELEVATION LOCATIONS,
THOUGH THE "BUST" SOLUTION STILL EXISTS WHERE WE MIX IN TOO MUCH
RAIN AND DON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH
REGARDING THIS RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS, RESULTING IN A NOTABLE WARM-UP AREAWIDE
POTENTIALLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT, THE ST.
GEORGE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY CREEPING AS HIGH AS 80F IN SOME AREAS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CA COASTLINE, PROGRESSING INLAND AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS UNFORTUNATELY
CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SETUP, KEEPING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN UT. AS SUCH, SUBSIDENCE
WILL REMAIN HIGHER YIELDING AMPLE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD
REMAINS DRY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE
AT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN UT GIVEN IT DOESN'T TREND
FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION...KSLC
A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE TERMINAL INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, WITH
MOST PERSISTENT PERIOD EXPECTED ~05Z TO ~11Z. SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THERE ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY, WITH MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN. WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TO LEAN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CREATE SOME VARIABILITY. BY
~18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS NW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS, A
MOIST PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
HEAVIEST MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
SEEING RAIN. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER
RAIN, WITH IFR OR LOWER ANYWHERE PRECIPITATION DOES SWITCH TO SNOW.
WINDS WILL TEND TO FAVOR S TO SW DIRECTIONS, WITH VARIABILITY FROM
PRECIPITATION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH TERMINALS LARGELY SEEING A WNW
SHIFT THEREAFTER. FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MORE BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ110>112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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