587
FXUS65 KSLC 251941
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1241 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, WITH
SNOWLEVELS NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET, FALLING TO NEAR 7000 TO 7500
FEET OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE MOST
PROBABLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, THOUGH WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED,
ALMOST SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERN UTAH WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY
AND MILD.
DISCUSSION
MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AN ACTIVE JET CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES.
AS EXPECTED, THIS JET CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, WITH ~15% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING, AROUND 8000-8500 FEET. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE THE MAX ACROSS ELEVATIONS AT
OR ABOVE THIS RANGE, THOUGH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS HAVE AROUND A
5% CHANCE OF UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW/GRAUPEL MIX.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF MID-SPRING RATHER THAN
LATE WINTER.
WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD A MORE INTERESTING DOMINANT
SOLUTION.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST. A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
CROSS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS PREFERENTIAL JET
DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE JET OVERHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL UTAH. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND THEN SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AS ANOTHER WARM
FRONT MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE EXACT MOVEMENTS AND TIMING OF THESE
VARIOUS FRONTS VARY ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, THE DOMINANT
MODEL SOLUTION SUPPORTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
(HIGHEST CONFIDENCE), SHIFTING AT TIMES INTO CENTRAL UTAH (MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE) SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOUTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, RELYING ON THE EJECTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THIS PORTION OF THE
STATE. MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASE IN SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH MOST CLUSTER MEANS
REPRESENTS A SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GIVEN THIS, SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH ANY PRECIPITATION, LARGELY AT OR ABOVE
8000-8500 FEET SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRING PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS TO THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE,
IMPACTS FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE TERRAIN
OBSCURATION, BUT A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, DECREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SOME TERMINALS FROM KPVU NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE EAST OF THE WASATCH. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR
ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
UTZ110>112.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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