796
FXUS65 KSLC 261940
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1240 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERY CONDITIONS, WITH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE.
- ANOTHER COLDER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ACROSS UTAH
WILL BE ONE OF FRONT PERTURBATION, UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND GENERALLY
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS. NO INDICATIONS OF A BLOCKING HIGH OR A
RETURN TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
WITH A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING A MUCH
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEKEND.
EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN ACTIVE JET CONTINUES TO
STREAM AROUND THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY, RIDGING
WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING NET WARMING AND A
GENERALLY NICE DAY TO MUCH OF THE BEEHIVE STATE. THIS RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS THE INFLUENCE OF A JET MAX ROTATING AROUND
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THOSE SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF PREFERENTIAL JET DYNAMICS
INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY, THE SIGNAL FOR
SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH NEAR THIS
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EJECT EASTWARD, A
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT IN MODEL TRENDS HAS INCREASED THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS UTAH WITH A COLD FRONT AND FALLING SNOW
LEVELS (THOUGH ONLY TO AROUND 7000 FEET) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SPREAD IN TIMING REMAINS AROUND 12 HOURS OR SO IN THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT CONSISTENCY IN PRESENTATION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW, YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION BY A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TIMING
VARIANCE IS THE BIGGEST CONSISTENCY DIFFERENCE...MODE IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS STORM WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS A BETTER TAP TO A COLDER AIRMASS, WITH
MEAN SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AROUND 5000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
YET ANOTHER, EVEN COLDER, UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWS IN IT'S WAKE AS
IS TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF ROSBY WAVE TRAIN...AND SHOULD KEEP
UTAH IN AN ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY INCREASINGLY COLD PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEKEND.
CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT FROM A
HEADLINE PERSPECTIVE WILL BE WITH THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SNOW
FORECASTS ARE AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
LOCALLY UP TO 18 INCHES IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS, WITH AROUND A
20% CHANCE OF UP TO AN INCH ON THE BENCHES.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK (AROUND 6000FT) IS
CONTINUING TO ERODE LATE THIS MORNING WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY (BUT REMAINING LIGHT) OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST AT MOST
SITES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER/GUSTIER WINDS FROM
THE WEST ARE FORECAST AT KEVW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WARE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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