160
FXUS65 KSLC 120411
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1011 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW (THURSDAY) AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH MOUNTAINS, WESTERN UINTAS, AND UINTA COUNTY WY.
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, THOUGH NOT AS HIGH MAGNITUDE ON FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE SATURDAY, INCREASING
WINDS AND GUSTS NOTABLY THIS WEEKEND AND COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR-NORMAL ON SUNDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UT.
- ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
A NOTABLE WARM-UP STARTING MONDAY, CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ON THURSDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ONCE
AGAIN AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUSHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH AN
ATTENDANT DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW. MID-LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS,
AND WITH A PRECEDING WELL-MIXED AIRMASS IN PLACE, THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WHILE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25MPH, OUR NORTHERN UT HIGH TERRAIN (BEAR
RIVER RANGE, WESTERN UINTAS, NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT) AND UINTA
COUNTY WY CAN EXPECT STRONG GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50MPH. UINTA COUNTY
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL GET CLOSE TO, AND PERHAPS EXCEED HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA (SUSTAINED WINDS >40MPH FOR 1HR OR GUSTS
>58MPH), THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LOWER THAN
40MPH (20-40% CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 40MPH) WITH SIMILAR CHANCES FOR
GUSTS EXCEEDING 58MPH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN
58MPH ARE ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF UINTA COUNTY
(~70% CHANCE).
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH MID-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN UT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING ENOUGH ASCENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT, LOCALLY ENHANCING GUSTS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA
FOR WINDS, THOUGH CHANCES FOR WINDS >75MPH (HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA) ACROSS THE BEAR RIVER RANGE RANGES FROM 20-30% WITH THE
UINTAS HOVERING AROUND 30-50% SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UINTA BASIN AND CASTLE COUNTY BOTH LOOK TO BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH CHANCES FOR GUSTS >45MPH (WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) RANGING
FROM 30-60% SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN AGREEMENT REGARDING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
SATURDAYS DRY FRONT BEFORE WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL WARM TO AROUND 10-15F ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20F ABOVE
NORMAL (80-90% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 85F). IT
WILL ONLY GET WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY
FEATURING A 50-60% CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 80F AND A >95%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 90F ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WOULD
SMASH THE RECORD FOR THE EARLIEST 80F DAY AT KSLC, WITH THE RECORD
EARLIEST 80F DAY OCCURRING ON 3/31. ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT EVEN PAST THIS 7 DAY FORECAST, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY GREATER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-19Z
THURSDAY, AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FLOWS WILL TRANSITION TO A WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THIS WIND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH, BUT MAY EXCEED 40 KTS AT KEVW.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ110-112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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