254
FXUS65 KSLC 121915
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
115 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN
WASATCH MOUNTAINS, WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, WESTERN UINTA BASIN
AND CASTLE COUNTRY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THIS
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
- ONE LAST MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
- ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST BEHIND
THIS FRONT TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR 20 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A 170KT+ JET MAX STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MONTANA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE WESTERN
UINTA BASIN, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED, WHILE
WIND GUSTS LARGELY UP TO 55 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS UINTA
COUNTY, WY.
700MB FLOW NEAR 50KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN UTAH (AND UINTA COUNTY, WY) THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES ARE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS IN THE WESTERN
UINTA BASIN AND UINTA COUNTY, WY.
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. THIS
HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DECREASING WINDS SUFFICIENTLY BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
BY SATURDAY, ANOTHER DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT A BIT LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S
RUNS...WHICH ALSO TRENDED THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS EXCEEDING 58 MPH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN, CASTLE COUNTRY HAS DECREASED TO
LESS THAN 15%. GIVEN THIS, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NORTHERN WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, DO NOT HAVE 50% OR GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING CONDITIONS. HELD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES
ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON, BUT GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS, ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED.
THE OTHER IMPACT TO BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1 TO 3
INCHES, LARGELY ABOVE 9000 FEET) SATURDAY. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES, THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE PERIODS OF GRAUPEL THAT CAN MAKE
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY SLICK. NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THOUGH.
AFTER ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MONDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE EC BASED
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX SHOWS VALUES PEGGED TO THE PEAK OF THE
CHARTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, WITH HIGH VALUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DETERMINISTIC
MAX TEMPERATURE FOR SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT BY THURSDAY IS 82F,
WHICH WOULD BREAK THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR MARCH (80F ON
3/31/2012). LOOKING AT THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A 700MB
TEMPERATURE OF 8C (CORRELATES TO 80 AT KSLC WITH A DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE), THE LREF SUGGESTS AROUND A 76% CHANCE THE 700MB
TEMPERATURE WILL MEET OR EXCEED 8C. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE
CURRENT DETERMINISTIC NBM. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY FOR ST. GEORGE IS 96F. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 96F OR
HIGHER ON RECORD FOR ST. GEORGE IS APRIL 15. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
UNLESS THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE, RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL BE HERE BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL TRANSITION
TO BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z. GUSTS TO 20KTS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY 01Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE EVENING WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY, OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 03-06Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UT/SOUTHWEST
WY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS GUSTING UP TO 20-30KTS. SOUTHWEST WY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 35-45KTS, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 50KTS AT
KFBR IN PARTICULAR. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 01Z, THOUGH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20KTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST WY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ110-112.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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