125
FXUS65 KSLC 130344
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
944 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH
MOUNTAINS, WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, WESTERN UINTA BASIN AND
CASTLE COUNTRY.
- ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR 20 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MARCH
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A VERY MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU REGION. THIS AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RUN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH KSLC
REACHING THE 70F MARK. THIS STRONGER FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH RANGE AS WELL AS INTO UINTA COUNTY WY, WHERE
GUSTS SPORADICALLY REACHED THE 60 MPH RANGE EARLIER. THESE WINDS
BEGAN TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET, AND THE WIND HEADLINES
WERE DROPPED ACCORDINGLY.
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER VERY MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
AGAIN RUNNING 10-15F ABOVE CLIMO. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE BEAR RIVER VALLEY,
UINTA COUNTY WY, AND THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN, HOWEVER THESE SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD AND NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY, PUSHING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO FAR NORTHERN
UTAH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME SPREAD REMAINS
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THIS TROUGH DIGS, WHICH WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. A DEEPER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD BRING BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO NORTHERN UTAH, FAVORING A HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. IN THIS SCENARIO A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE LINE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION (0.10-0.25 MOST LIKELY) WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE ROUGHLY 9000 FEET WOULD AFFECT NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UTAH. A WEAKER, BRUSH-BY SOLUTION
WOULD PUSH A MORE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE,
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF LIGHTER, MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
REGARDLESS, STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER
VALLEY/UINTA COUNTY WY, THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN AND CASTLE
COUNTRY WITH A CHANCE THESE GUSTS EXTEND EAST INTO THE SAN RAFAEL
SWELL.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, KNOCKING MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS INCLUDING THE CACHE
VALLEY AND WASATCH FRONT, AND LOW 50S ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING RICHFIELD, DELTA AND CEDAR CITY, WHILE ST
GEORGE/ZION CANYON REMAIN AROUND 70F SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK,
AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TEND CONSIDERABLY WARMER (6-10F EACH DAY)
BEGINNING MONDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THURSDAY, MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING NOT JUST DAILY, BUT MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RECORD WARMTH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEVW WHERE GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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