296
FXUS65 KSLC 141957
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
157 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY PM
THROUGH SUNDAY AM, BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN
AREA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. STRONG WEST/ NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, AS WELL AS A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN UTAH.
- A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. RECORD
DAILY, AND MONTHLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1:20PM, THE TROUGH (AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT) THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WIND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP AS THE FEATURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE WILL OCCUR AS
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN
UTAH/ SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS (30-35 MPH GUSTS)
ARE EXPECTED DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ARE LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
EVENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, OVERHEAD WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 50 TO 60KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME,
WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE ALONG (AND BEHIND)
THE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH. FOR AREAS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN FEATURE, STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING WIND GUSTS OF UPWARDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH. THIS
WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND A PORTION
OF SOUTHERN UTAH. AREAS OF PARTICULAR NOTE FOR THESE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BE THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN, CASTLE COUNTRY,
AND ESCALANTE AREA LATE TONIGHT/ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXPANDED THE CURRENT LIST OF WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE
ESCALANTE AND CAPITOL REEF AREA AS A BRIEF (~3 HOUR) PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS... AGAIN, FOR THOSE AREAS DOWN-WIND OF SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN
FEATURES. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT SCRAPES BY TO THE EAST. AREAS WITHIN BLACK RIDGE CANYON
(E.G. PINTURA) ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BRUNT OF THESE STRONG WINDS
(60 MPH), HOWEVER, AREAS FARTHER SOUTH BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE
MOUTH OF THE CANYON (E.G. TOQUERVILLE, HURRICANE, AND LA VERKIN)
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE STRONG WIND UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH.
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DOWNSLOPE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE) AS WE
HEAD INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF 15-20 DEGREES LOWER
THAN SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/ SOUTHWEST WYOMING).
A BRIEF REMINDER THAT WINTER STILL EXISTS... BUT NOT FOR MUCH
LONGER.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. UNDER THIS RIDGE, RAPIDLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S! THE CURRENT RECORD FOR EARLIEST 80
DEGREE DAY IN SLC IS MARCH 31 (SET BACK IN 2012)... NBM
PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS: 60%, 85%, 80%. IT SEEMS VERY
LIKELY AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT WE WILL BE SETTING A NEW RECORD
FOR THE EARLIEST 80 DEGREE DAY BY AT LEAST 11 DAYS (POTENTIALLY
BY 13 DAYS). FOR THE ST. GEORGE AREA, THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE DAY
ON RECORD CURRENT STANDS AT APRIL 2 (SET IN 1996)... THIS RECORD
IS VERY LIKELY TO BE BROKEN BY OVER 2 WEEKS AS NBM PROBABILITIES
OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER RISE TO 90% BY WEDNESDAY AND NEARLY 100%
BY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE AN UNPRECEDENTED EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE. MANY RECORDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS GOING FORWARD FOR ANY CHANGES BUT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, OFTEN GUSTING BETWEEN 25-30KTS. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6000-8000FT AGL, PRODUCING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES, ALONGSIDE ISOLATED SHOWERS/VIRGA
ACROSS THE VALLEY UNTIL ~04Z. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF ENHANCED AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING AROUND 02-04Z WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 45KTS) AND A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING (5% CHANCE). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS N-UT/SW-WY WHERE VALLEYS WILL SEE GUSTS TO 20-30KTS. MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER (10% CHANCE). VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY VIRGA IF
ANYTHING, THOUGH THIS VIRGA COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW-UT BY 00-01Z, MOVING
THROUGH THE WASATCH FRONT BY ~06Z AND REACHING S-UT BY 10-12Z. VERY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, WITH MANY
VALLEYS SEEING GUSTS OF 35-45KTS AND PRONE AREAS (IN HIGHER TERRAIN,
DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN) WILL SEE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS EXCEEDING
50KTS (KEVW, KPVU MOST LIKELY). BLOWING DUST COULD PRODUCE MVFR VIS
AT TIMES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ101.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ102>105-107-109.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ106.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ110.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ112-113-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ114-120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ121.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ123.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ128-129.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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