057
FXUS65 KSLC 181803
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1203 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HISTORICALLY WARM WEATHER FOR MARCH
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING MONTHLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AS THEY APPROACH 30F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND SUNDAY, THOUGH
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE, CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE BY A FEW
MORE DEGREES, LIKELY PEAKING ON FRIDAY IN MOST AREAS AT 20 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...FEELING MORE AKIN TO EARLY JUNE RATHER THAN
MID-MARCH. EVEN MONTHLY TEMPERATURES RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
BROKEN, WITH A SELECT FEW NOTED BELOW, PER THE NBM 5.0:
* KSLC (80 - 2010): THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE THIS MONTHLY
RECORD IS REACHED WEDNESDAY, 50% THURSDAY, AND A 90% CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAX TEMPERATURE INCREASES
TO 83-86.
* CEDAR CITY (81 - 2004), THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THIS MONTHLY
RECORD IS REACHED WEDNESDAY, AND A 95% CHANCE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE 86-89).
* ST GEORGE (91): THERE IS A 15% CHANCE THIS RECORD IS REACHED
WEDNESDAY, AND A 75% CHANCE THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 95% ON
FRIDAY (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE 94-96).
ON SUNDAY, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BY 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND AROUND
5 DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. GIVEN SUCH ANTECEDENT
WARMTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BEYOND SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS ANOTHER
WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING
GREATLY AFTER WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN 700-MB TEMPERATURE IN THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES, BETWEEN -6C AND +8C (COMPARED TO +11C FORECAST BY THIS
FRIDAY), DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE/PROXIMITY OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ277.
CUNNINGHAM/MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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