867
FXUS65 KSLC 230355
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
MONDAY, RETURNING TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THURSDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF CEDAR CITY FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS SOUTH OF CEDAR CITY WILL COOL 1 TO
4 DEGREES OR SO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION IS SUNDAY, MARCH 29.
DISCUSSION
THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST FOR THE REGION IS LARGELY A
STORY OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM TEMPORARILY FLATTENING THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH DRY COLD FRONTS CROSSING THE
STATE...UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN AT LEAST PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE
(AS OF THE 12Z RUNS, ABOUT 40-50% OF MEMBERS) BREAKS DOWN THE
RIDGE AND DEVELOPS MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST.
FOR NOW, AFTER A "COOLER" DAY ACROSS THE REGION...ANOTHER DAY OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE BY TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SUGGESTS
THE WASATCH FRONT MAY REACH OR EXCEED THE MONTHLY RECORDS SET JUST
A FEW DAYS AGO, WITH THE FORECAST HIGH OF 84F AT SLC.
NOTE THAT WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SUGGEST
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 11C OR GREATER (AND THUS A HIGH NEAR
86F), KSLC SITS ON THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THESE VERY WARM 700MB
TEMPERATURES. AROUND 65% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CURRENTLY FORECAST A
700MB TEMPERATURE IN EXCESS OF 10C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY
ABOUT 25% IN EXCESS OF 11C. EITHER WAY, THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY KSLC WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED THE MONTHLY RECORD SET
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
A STRONG, BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER "COOLER" AIRMASS
INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MOST OF UTAH THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND
A 35% CHANCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 45 MPH IN THE WESTERN UINTA
BASIN AND CASTLE COUNTRY (TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE WINDS POST-FRONTAL).
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AREAS MOVING FORWARD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADVISORIES.
BY SATURDAY, WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST REAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY INTO THE NEXT MONDAY AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS DEEP MOISTURE INTO UTAH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PREFERENTIAL JET DYNAMICS.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR
KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
APPROXIMATELY 40% WITH THIS DEEPER SOLUTION AND 60% RANGING FROM A
SHALLOW BRUSH-BY TO MORE PERSISTENT RIDGING. MODEL TRENDS WILL BE
INTERESTING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT SAID, BY AND
LARGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE WARM GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TIER PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH, WITH OVER
95% OF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS 9000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, 75% BY MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREVAILING AT THE SLC TERMINAL AFTER AROUND 06Z. UNTIL THEN, WINDS
MAY BE VARIABLE OR WESTERLY BUT LIGHT (<6KT). NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RELAX, BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY BY 06Z. BREEZY WESTERLIES TO
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 18Z MONDAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page