549
FXUS65 KSLC 071715
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1115 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- THE ONSET OF A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY,
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THIS PATTERN
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH THE
INTRUSION OF SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
MORNING MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DEPARTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IN TURN
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN
AROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. WHILE ARGUABLE PLEASANT,
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OUT ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. WITH THE RIDGE IN PROXIMITY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY GENERALLY REACHING
SIMILAR MARKS. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND
A VERY WEAK AND DRY BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, KNOCKING
THOSE TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND WASHES OUT, THURSDAY
IT WILL HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LIFT GIVEN
MODEST DESTABILIZATION ~50-250 J/KG SBCAPE. BEST CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (~20-40%
CHANCE) WILL BE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. A LOWER CHANCE (~10-20%) IS NOTED AT LOWER
ELEVATION WINDWARD AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TERRAIN. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND MODERATELY STRONG HEATING, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ANY SUCH SHOWERS BEING HIGHER BASED IN NATURE,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODEST OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY CEASE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THE FORECAST PATTERN WILL START SHOWING SOME MODEST SIGNS OF
CHANGE BY AS EARLY FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO
A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING ASHORE IN CALIFORNIA. AS SUCH, WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN CHANGES MORE IN EARNEST STARTING SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, AND
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE COMBINATION IN FURTHER INCREASES OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAWIDE. GIVEN LIMITED COOL AIR INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL START
AROUND 8500-9000 FEET, AND ONLY FOSTER SOME MODEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MODELS THEN SHOW MODEST
AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH
AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY, ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP MORE INTO THE
6000-7000 FEET RANGE. THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACT TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH. FOR EXAMPLE, AROUND 20% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NEVER PHASE THE TWO TROUGHS, AND INSTEAD WE END
UP WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLIDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGING MODEST QPF AT BEST ALONG WITH LITTLE
INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR. WILL CERTAINLY BE A TREND TO WATCH.
STILL, FOR NOW THE NBM HAS AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1"
OF LIQUID FOR MUCH OF UTAH'S MOUNTAINS, AND 70-80% OF AT LEAST
0.25". SO LONG AS THE TAP OF COLD AIR DOES GET ESTABLISHED, WE'D
ALSO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
AVIATION...KSLC
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERN, BECOMING SOUTH
AROUND 01-03Z WED, AND BACK NW AROUND 16-18Z THEREAFTER.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A NEARBY RIDGE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS ARE FAVORED TO FOLLOW A DIURNALLY NORMAL
DIRECTIONAL PATTERN, WITH SOME MODEST GUSTS (~15-30 KTS) PRIMARILY
AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND EXPOSED TERMINALS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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