313
FXUS65 KSLC 081728
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1128 AM MDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A BROAD SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY GUSTY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THERE IS A
40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UTAH'S WEST DESERT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY, INITIALLY BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AS HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. A
COLDER SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
LOWER SNOW LEVELS, AND BRING A PERIOD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THROUGH OVERHEAD, WORKING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE DRAPED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH AS A RESULT OF A
DEPARTING GRAZING TYPE SYSTEM. WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, NOT REALLY ANTICIPATING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM IT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TERRAIN AT
LEAST. OTHERWISE, BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS JUST HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, AND AT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER. OVERALL THOUGH, TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES DAY TO DAY INCREASING A DEGREE OR TWO. IN GENERAL,
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
THURSDAY THE COMBINATION OF WHATEVER REMNANTS EXIST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BOUNDARY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MODEST
ENERGY ADVECTING OVERHEAD WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THESE WILL BE
MOST FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL ALSO SEE
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE START OF A MORE PRONOUNCED PATTERN SHIFT
AS A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH ADVANCES FURTHER INLAND. WITHIN THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, 700 MB WINDS PUSH MORE INTO THE
35-45 KT RANGE OR SO. WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MIXING TO SOME
EXTENT, ANY DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER EITHER FROM THERMAL MIXING
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BRING POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTY WINDS REALIZED
AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST ODDS OF SEEING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH'S WEST DESERT (AROUND
40-50% CHANCE), WITH MORE MODEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY ON SATURDAY, INCREASING FORCING AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PWATS FOR EXAMPLE
WILL BE AROUND 100-150% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL, WITH SOME
HIGHER POCKETS AT AREAS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS ALSO SUPPORT SOME
LEVEL OF DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY, WITH MEAN SBCAPE GENERALLY ON
THE ORDER FOR 100-300 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY, THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. WHAT LITTLE CAM
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE ALREADY SHOWS SOME SEMBLANCE OF MORE SPRING
LIKE CONVECTION. WITH THE PWATS AND INSTABILITY, MAY NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS, TYPICALLY DRY
WASHES, SLOT CANYONS, AND SLICKROCK AREAS.
THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEN
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PATTERN EVOLVING SUCH THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACNW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE
BROADER TROUGH, ALLOW A TAP OF COLDER AIR TO BE ESTABLISHED, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LOCALLY. TIMING
STILL FAVORS THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH SPREAD IS STILL
NOTED IN EXACT TIMING, TROUGH DEPTH/STRENGTH, AND JUST HOW COLD
THE CORRESPONDING AIRMASS IS. MODELS DO AT LEAST CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WITH THE NBM STILL INDICATING AROUND A
20-40% CHANCE OF WATER IN EXCESS OF 1" FOR MOST OF UTAH'S
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
8500 FEET OR SO, BUT DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND FALL CLOSER TO
6000 FEET. AS SUCH, WILL SEE FAVORABLE CHANCES OF SOME
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY,
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN FLUX, BUT CURRENT PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST ABOUT 40-60% CHANCE OF 6" OR MORE FOR MOST OF UTAH'S
MOUNTAINS. THESE AMOUNTS INCREASE AT NORTHERN AREAS, WITH AROUND A
50-70% CHANCE OF 12" OR MORE IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS AND WESTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS. ULTIMATELY, WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
TRENDS. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHERE THE
AGRICULTURAL GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED, BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW COLD THE AIRMASS IS, LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT CHANCE OR AREAL EXTENT THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION...KSLC
CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
DOMINANT DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTH. VFR THROUGHOUT WITH FEW TO SCT
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL REMAINS LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN HIGHER WINDS. VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH JUST FEW TO SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IF NOT SKC.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...CARLETTA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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