049
FXUS65 KSLC 090441
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1041 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A BROAD SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY GUSTY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THERE IS A
40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UTAH'S WEST DESERT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY, INITIALLY BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AS HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. A
COLDER SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
LOWER SNOW LEVELS, AND BRING A PERIOD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONGSIDE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET
THIS EVENING AS MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA THANKS TO A SUBTLE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
DROPPED INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOW AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE PAIRING WITH WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS IN UTAH'S WEST DESERT. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
NOTED AT SURFACE-BASED OBSERVATION SITES AS THE NEAR SURFACE (AND
REMAINDER OF THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BELOW 10,000FT) REMAINS
VERY DRY. THESE ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW LEVELS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREA TOMORROW, IT IS UNLIKELY (LESS THAN 15-20%
CHANCE) THAT APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION (0.05 INCHES OR GREATER)
WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE VALLEY AREAS. THAT SAID, ANTICIPATE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH, WITH
LIGHT SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (9,800FT+).
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING FORWARD AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO
PIVOT INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE
PATTERN SHIFTS AND WE ENTER A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, THE
MAIN CONCERNS FOR WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND, MODERATE VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. DURING THIS PATTERN CHANGE, THERE WILL BE TWO
DISTINCT ACTIVE PERIODS; THE FIRST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY (WARMER SYSTEM, LIMITED IMPACTS) AND THE SECOND EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY (COLDER SYSTEM,
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS).
THE INITIAL PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW, EFFECTIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE LOW
TO MOVE INLAND. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN AT, OR BELOW, 30-35 MPH. ONE FINAL SURGE OF WARM
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BY AROUND 2-4 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE WARMTH IS SHUNTED NORTHEASTWARD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM
THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND BROAD LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH SNOWFALL CONFINED TO THE HIGH
ELEVATION (9,000-9,500FT AND ABOVE) DUE TO WARM ANTECEDENT
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND FLOW
ENHANCES ALOFT, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS (40-45+ MPH)
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UTAH ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE THERE IS UPWARDS OF A 40-50% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
SATURDAY.
THE MEAT AND POTATOES OF THE PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND, BRINGING CONTINUED
ENHANCED WINDS, A GREATER INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
HOWEVER, MODEL TRENDS HAVE SEEMINGLY SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE
BEST ENERGY AND A SKOSH LATER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THAT SAID, CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TOWARD A
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE BEST POTENTIAL
TO SEE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, WITH POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AND A PORTION OF TUESDAY. AS IT STANDS,
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
NAMELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK OF THE BEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND PRODUCTIVITY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS.
CURRENT MODEL SPREAD (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) IN 48-HOUR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND
0.1-0.3 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN UTAH VALLEYS, 0.05-0.15 INCHES FOR
EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS, AND 0.25-0.75 INCHES FOR NORTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS... ALL OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN BELOW 6,000FT
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, THE POSSIBILITIES FOR
SNOW AND SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW
(0.3-0.75IN SWE) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND 6-16
INCHES OF SNOW (0.75-1.5IN SWE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER END OF THESE FORECAST RANGES
ARE REFLECTIVE OF RANGES/ PORTIONS OF RANGES THAT ARE OFTEN
FAVORED DURING STORMS (E.G. UPPER COTTONWOODS, WESTERN UINTAS,
TUSHAR MOUNTAINS, AND BRIAN HEAD AREA).
AS MENTIONED, THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO WORK THROUGH BEFORE
WE GET INTO THIS EVENT, BUT THE BIG-PICTURE STORY REMAINS THE
SAME; A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS UTAH WHICH WILL BE FAVORED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION...KSLC
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
UTAH. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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