341
FXUS65 KSLC 091738
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1138 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
- A BROAD SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY GUSTY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THERE IS A
40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UTAH'S WEST DESERT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY, INITIALLY BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL AS HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. A
COLDER SYSTEM WILL THEN REINFORCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, LOWER SNOW LEVELS, AND BRING A PERIOD OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONGSIDE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
A VERY WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THESE HAVEN'T HAD MUCH IN THE
WAY OF WATER ASSOCIATED WITH THEM, RATHER JUST SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES. SIMILARLY, THERE IS A BAND OF THICKER CLOUD COVER NEAR
THIS REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE, WITH MOSTLY JUST SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION. ANTICIPATE CLEARING WILL ALLOW SOME
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, AND IN TURN WILL SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP NEAR THIS REMNANT
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MORE MUTED, WITH
GENERALLY JUST SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING OFF OF THE TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ON FRIDAY A BROAD PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL START PUSHING INLAND ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LOCALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
ENHANCEMENT TO DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AS WELL AS SOME MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVECTING THROUGH OVERHEAD COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AND AS SUCH EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND, SHIFT
INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE, AND LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND ENHANCED SYNOPTIC
FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION. WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH OVERHEAD, SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED,
WHICH WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT ALL THE SAME IF A STRONGER CELL
WORKS OVER A RAIN SENSITIVE AREA (BURN SCAR, SLOT CANYON, DRY
WASH), IT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT. GIVEN THE INTRODUCTION OF A
BIT OF SHEAR, ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS/SEGMENTS (AS CAMS SUCH AS THE RRFS SUGGEST). THE ECM EFI
DOES HIGHLIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA AS HAVING ANOMALOUS CAPE/SHEAR,
ALSO HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL. STILL, WOULD PUT THIS AS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION/STORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY, THE
ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS AREAWIDE. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL
REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST DESERT REGION WHERE THERE
REMAINS AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH. WHILE MORE MODEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE, WOULD
EXPECT OTHER TYPICAL HOTSPOTS SUCH AS THE TOOELE VALLEY OR AREAS
NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TERRAIN FEATURES WHERE WINDS
DOWNSLOPE TO HAVE SOME STRONG GUSTS AS WELL (E.G.
OQUIRRH/STANSBURY MOUNTAINS).
AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE SATURDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT, A SECONDARY
DEEP TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN ON AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, AND AS SUCH EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST IN SOME CAPACITY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES IN. SHOWER
CHANCES THEN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE TROUGH MAINTAINS FORCING.
THESE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW IS A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC ELEMENT.
AS ALLUDED TO WITH THE COLD FRONT, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MORE
POTENT TAP OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PREFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MILDER WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500 TO 8000
FEET, BUT GRADUALLY FALL CLOSER TO 6000 TO 6500 FEET FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE OF WATER AMOUNTS AT OR IN EXCESS OF
1" FOR MUCH OF UTAH'S MOUNTAINS, AND GOOD ODDS OF SOME SORT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MORE OR LESS AREAWIDE. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW LEVELS, THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY APPRECIABLE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO NOT
SHIFTED MUCH WITH AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF 6" OR MORE OF SNOW FOR
MUCH OF UTAH'S MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED
SPOTS. GIVEN PROLONGED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE'S STILL AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF 12" OR MORE SNOW
IN PLACES LIKE THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS AS FORECAST TO FORECAST THE TIMING AND OVERALL WATER
AMOUNTS HAVE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOME. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO DROP MARKEDLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MORE
IN THE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGE.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL TODAY.
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING W-E
ACROSS THE SALT LAKE VALLEY MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 05Z, WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLIES DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY. EXPECT GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
BREEZES FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT THOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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