582
FXUS65 KSLC 100410
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1010 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON
FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH.
- A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.
- A STRONGER PACIFIC LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN UTAH TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS GOING AT THIS TIME, WITH CAMS INDICATING VERY ISOLATED
COVERAGE (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN UTAH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND MOVE ONSHORE
TOMORROW, RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN UTAH. RIGHT NOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH IS 30 PERCENT OR LESS PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONG.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THIS EVENING, WITH
CONFIDENCE BECOMING HIGH THAT IT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
DURING THE DAY. OF GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
THE GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN UTAH, WHICH NOW HAVE A 40 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT COOLING AND SOME MORE WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW, AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, BUT ASSOCIATED
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNIMPRESSIVE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW IS ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. ITS
EVENTUAL FATE, HOWEVER, IS LOOKING A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME
GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THE FIRST ONE,
WHILE A LARGE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS IT LITTLE IF AT ALL.
THERE IS ALSO NOTICEABLE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OF
THIS NATURE, MANY OF WHICH WE'VE SEEN DURING THIS COOL SEASON. IT
DOES APPEAR, HOWEVER, THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WITH
NBM PROBABILITIES SHOWING A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AND IT DOES SEEM
REASONABLE TO SAY AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE GREATER MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS, WITH AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
OVERALL, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL ON
POTENTIAL DETAILS.
BEHIND THAT SECOND LOW, MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST SOME
BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING AGAIN. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING FOR DAY SEVEN AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR A CEILING AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THEY INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWER CHANCES,
BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR PROB30 INCLUSION. IT WILL BE LATER AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME LIKELY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CARLETTA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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