917
FXUS65 KSLC 101737
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1137 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS, THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING TO ANY RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS OVER WHICH THEY TRACK.
- A BROAD APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS AREAWIDE. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH IN THE WEST DESERT SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO 60-80% SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
LARGE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN, ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW,
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER IS ADVECTING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITHIN INCREASING DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE NOTED ON AREA RADARS
THIS MORNING, BUT LITTLE INDICATION OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS MODEST INSTABILITY BUILDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO INCREASE,
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF UTAH'S HIGH TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE, WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY A BROADER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING ASHORE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE A PRECEDING WAVE ADVECTS THROUGH
OVERHEAD WITHIN THE ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO CONCENTRATE MOISTURE MORE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT HIGH
TERRAIN, WITH MORE MODEST AMOUNTS ALSO NOTED ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH ACTIVITY TAKING A MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. GIVEN ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS A RESULT OF THE PASSING WAVE AND ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND POSE A THREAT OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE MOISTURE, ANY
STRONGER STORM THAT TRACKS OVER A RAIN SENSITIVE BASIN (BURN
SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, TYPICALLY DRY WASHES, SLICKROCK AREAS) WILL
POSE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR RECREATION
PLANS TO SUCH AREAS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. SOMETHING OF A
DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP AS THE INITIAL WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT AND
THE BROAD SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CHURN INLAND, AND AS SUCH
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION ELEMENT OF THIS PATTERN,
THE DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL
ALSO ENHANCE LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED LATE MORNING ON THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS
MIXING STRENGTHENS. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY, WITH ROUGHLY A 40-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH IN PORTIONS OF UTAH'S WEST DESERT REGION. GUSTS FURTHER
INCREASE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH CHANCES OF WEST
DESERT GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH INCREASING TO 60-80%. LESS CONFIDENCE
NOTED, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE OTHER WESTERN VALLEYS SEE
SOME GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY TYPICAL HOTSPOTS LIKE
THE TOOELE VALLEY OR AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES, SUCH AS
THE NORTH END OF THE OQUIRRH MOUNTAINS OR STANSBURY MOUNTAINS.
ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL TO BLOW AROUND ANY LOOSE UNSECURED OBJECTS,
WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING DUST, AND THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
CROSSWINDS ON TRAVEL ROUTES SUCH AS I- 80.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD SYSTEM ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. COVERAGE WILL THEN BECOME MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER IN THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SUBTLE LOBES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH WITHIN THE
DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW CHURNING THROUGH OVERHEAD. ONE LARGE CHANGE
IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THAT MODELS HAVE STARTED TO
TREND BACK TOWARDS THE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE LOW CUTS OFF FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM, WHICH IN TURN LIMITS THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE TRACK ALSO LIMITS STRONGER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC BOOST TO
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. ALL THAT SAID,
FORECAST WATER AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD. MUCH OF UTAH
AREA MOUNTAINS NOW SIT AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE WATER,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SALT LAKE AND OGDEN AREA MOUNTAINS WHICH
ALSO DROPPED CLOSER TO THE 10-20% RANGE. IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE,
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET OR SO, ONLY DROPPING TO
AROUND 6500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS HAVE
ALSO DECREASES, WITH FORECAST CURRENTLY CARRYING A MORE
WIDESPREAD 2-4" FOR MOST UTAH AREA MOUNTAINS, AND LOCALLY 8-12" IN
MORE FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. THERE IS AROUND
A 20% CHANCE TO SEE SNOWFALL EXCEED 12" IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WHILE THEY'LL MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK,
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL IN ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATER ON
IN THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCES THIS FAR
OUT, LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF DETAILS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE TERMINAL, WITH A PERSISTENT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 02Z, WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY. INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH LIGHTER TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 30 KTS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE WASATCH, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TS DEVELOPING AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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