313
FXUS65 KSLC 110402
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO ANY RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS OVER WHICH
THEY TRACK.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON SATURDAY, WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER THE
WEST DESERT. THE APPROACH OF A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
WINDS FURTHER FOR SUNDAY, WITH A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF WEST
DESERT WINDS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
- THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PERIODS OF
VALLEY RAIN AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING, PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNDER A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS DRAWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY, WITH MANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS, SOME IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE, EVENTUALLY CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
INCREASE MUCH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAS DROPPED TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. WHILE IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE ISOLATED GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH, THE AREAL EXTENT AND ANTICIPATED DURATION OF
THESE WINDS WOULD NOT WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF I-15, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN UTAH. STILL, ANY STORMS THAT
MOVE OVER RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS COULD BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING.
AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM EXITS THE FORECAST AREA, ANOTHER BROAD LOW
WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION FOR THIS LOW THAT WOULD SLOWLY TRACK IT
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY. THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW, THOUGH TOTALS OVERALL LOOK A BIT LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY BECOMES A BIT MOISTURE STARVED AND MORE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE SYSTEM WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.
A DRIER ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD,
BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS FOR DAY
SEVEN.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
TIMES, BUT NOT AS GUSTY AS THEY WERE DURING THE DAY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AS THIS
SHIFTS, GUSTS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW ON FRIDAY WILL RETURN. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW, BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST
OF THE WASATCH SUCH THAT IT HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAF.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS HAVE BEEN CALMING THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM A A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS AGAIN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE STARTING MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MAINLY EAST OF
THE WASATCH. SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CARLETTA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page