881
FXUS65 KSLC 111711
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1111 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
UPDATE
QUICK UPDATE AFD TODAY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IMPACTING THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT MESOANALYSIS, SBCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED
THROUGH THE MORNING, AVERAGING 500-1000 J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT...WITH A
BROAD AREA OF 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS ACROSS THE
BEEHIVE STATE. A DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME,
CLEARING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF HAIL IN
QUARTER SIZE OR LARGER), STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH WITH
THUNDERSTORMS (5-10% CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH) AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. THE MOST AT RISK LOCATIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING
INCLUDE CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL PARK, THE GRAND STAIRCASE NATIONAL
MONUMENT, THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL, WESTERN CANYONLANDS AND GLEN
CANYON NATIONAL RECREATION AREA.
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BY 4-5
PM. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
UINTA COUNTY, WY AND EASTERN UTAH WILL DIMINISH AFTER 5 PM.
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY, EXPECT A GREATER
THAN 70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH, THE SEVIER VALLEY AND CASTLE
COUNTRY. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORIES WITH THIS
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES AND THE AVIATION AFD ARE UPDATED. THE PREVIOUS AFD
FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER.
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (5-10% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS 58 MPH) IS OUTLOOKED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL UTAH, THE SEVIER VALLEY AND CASTLE COUNTRY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THE HEAVIEST MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION (PREVIOUS, ISSUED AT 1002 PM 04/10)
A BROAD STORM
SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING,
PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS DRAWING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY,
WITH MANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SOME IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE, EVENTUALLY CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
INCREASE MUCH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAS DROPPED TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. WHILE IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE ISOLATED GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH, THE AREAL EXTENT AND ANTICIPATED DURATION OF
THESE WINDS WOULD NOT WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF I-15, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN UTAH. STILL, ANY STORMS THAT
MOVE OVER RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS COULD BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING.
AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM EXITS THE FORECAST AREA, ANOTHER BROAD LOW
WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION FOR THIS LOW THAT WOULD SLOWLY TRACK IT
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY. THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW, THOUGH TOTALS OVERALL LOOK A BIT LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THEY HAVE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY BECOMES A BIT MOISTURE STARVED AND MORE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE SYSTEM WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.
A DRIER ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD,
BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS FOR DAY
SEVEN.
AVIATION (UPDATED AS OF 1110 AM 4/11)...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE A BRIEF DROP INTO
MVFR AS THEY PASS WITH INCREASED AND MORE VARIABLE WIND SPEEDS.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE
SHIFTING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL BE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL CALM
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN ALONG A DIURNAL TREND TOMORROW.
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT LATER IN
THE DAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BROADLY VFR WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING BRIEF DROPS INTO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
NORTH. GUSTY SYNOPTIC WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FALLING
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE USUAL DIURNAL CURVE. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTH. MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LATER IN THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CARLETTA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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