026
FXUS65 KSLC 120358
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO
WEST CENTRAL UTAH, SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL UTAH VALLEYS, AND THE
TOOELE VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN MANY AREAS INCLUDING THE
WASATCH FRONT AND MANY UTAH VALLEYS (OUTSIDE LOWER WASHINGTON
COUNTY) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLDER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH ROUGHLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH PIVOTED THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY IS CONTINUING TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING, AFTER RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND REPORTS AND SMALL HAIL. UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE
NOW ENTERING SOMETHING OF A DRY SLOT IN ADVANCE OF A BROADER AND
DEEPER TROUGH SLOWLY CHURNING INLAND FROM THE CALIFORNIA. AS SUCH,
WHILE SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE. WHILE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHT, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS LINGER OR MORE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE MAINTAINED.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED AS THE BROAD
TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WITH A BELT OF
700 MB WINDS INCREASING OVERHEAD TO AROUND 40-55 KTS. IN TURN,
INCREASING MIXING FROM MID MORNING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
BRING THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWNWARD, RESULTING IN GUSTY
CONDITIONS MORE OR LESS AREAWIDE. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH IS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO WEST
CENTRAL UTAH, SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL UTAH VALLEYS, AND THE TOOELE
VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACCORDINGLY. THAT SAID, FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AREA MAY
BE WARRANTED, AND EVEN IF NOT QUITE HITTING CRITERIA, MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH
RANGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER RIDGETOPS WILL
SEE STRONGER GUSTS. IN ADDITION FOR POTENTIAL TO BLOW AROUND LOOSE
AND UNSECURED OBJECTS, THESE STRONG WINDS MAY BRING CROSSWIND
IMPACTS TO MOTORISTS (ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES) ON
EAST-WEST ROUTES, AS WELL AS PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING DUST. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW OVERHEAD, THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO CARRY THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON INTO
THE EVENING. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST STRONG ORGANIZATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BUT DO ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOME EBB AND FLOW IN COVERAGE/RATES AS A RESULT OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
THROUGH. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN OVERALL WATER AMOUNTS HAS NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY REVERSED, SO MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
FAIRLY MODEST. IN GENERAL, STILL LOOKING AT AROUND 2-5" AT MOST
UTAH MOUNTAINS, AND LOCALLY 6-12" OR SO AT FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS
THE UPPER COTTONWOODS OR TUSHAR MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE LONGER
DURATION AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. STILL, MOTORISTS TRAVELING
OVER HIGH ELEVATION PASSES OR TO THOSE LOCALLY FAVORED AREAS
SHOULD AT LEAST BE PREPARED AND AWARE OF POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN TERMS OF SNOW LEVELS, ANTICIPATE INITIAL
LEVELS AROUND 7500-8000 FT GRADUALLY DROPPING NEARER TO 6000-6500
FT BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COOL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A PERIOD OF
ANOMALOUS HEAT, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY FALL BACK TO AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DIP,
WITH FORECAST LOWS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LOCALLY
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THOSE WITH GARDENS OR
OTHER SENSITIVE AGRICULTURE, WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
TRENDS TO EXACT NUMBERS.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND A
SLIGHT CORRESPONDING WARMUP, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
CONSISTENCY IN ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BEING A BIT OUT IN TIME, BUT MODELS DO SHOW
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS BEING A COLDER SYSTEM AS WELL. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE 700 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -9C TO
ROUGHLY -12C, WHICH WOULD BE ON THE COLDER SIDE FOR A MID APRIL
STORM. AS CURRENTLY PROGGED, IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAYBE
SOME VALLEY FLAKES IN NORTHERN UTAH, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH BACK, AND SOME MODEST MOUNTAIN
SNOWACCUMULATIONS. FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WOULD LIKELY PROVE
MORE IMPACTFUL, PARTICULARLY TO THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH MOST SYSTEMS THIS SEASON THOUGH, WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS TO SEE IF IT STARTS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
MODERATING THE OTHER WAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 03-05Z, INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE AFTER
~09Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS. GUSTS MAY DROP OFF AT TIMES BEFORE
BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT AFTER 16Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22- 23Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, THOUGH CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/HEAVIER SHOWERS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WHILE MANY SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z, PARTICULARLY AT SITES DOWNWIND OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AFTER
16-17Z, WITH GUSTS TO 35-45KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE IN PRONE AREAS IN WESTERN UT, REDUCING VIS TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z, HIGHER COVERAGE SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN UT AFTER 20Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ102-115-116-
118>120-122-126>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page