122
FXUS65 KSLC 121948
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
148 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT VALLEYS AS WELL AS TOOELE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED AS WELL, THOUGH JUST SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN UT.
CURRENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NORTHERN UT AND SW WY
OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIND AS
THE MAIN THREAT.
- A SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF VALLEY RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY RESULTING IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR A HARD
FREEZE (>80%) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCLUDING
SE/SW UT AND PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT.
- GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MUCH COLDER STORM ACROSS
NORTHERN UT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS
CONTINUE TO TREND UP, THE CHANCE FOR VALLEY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UT
AND SW WY ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF A LOW
CHURNING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UT. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA BEFORE
TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THIS OCCURS, H7
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TO AROUND 40-50KTS AND MIX
TO THE SURFACE BRINGING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT GUSTS CAPPING
AROUND 40MPH, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UT, CENTRAL UT, CASTLE COUNTRY,
AND THE TOOELE VALLEY CAN EXPECT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH STRENGTHENING H7 FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN UT
AND SW WY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST
THIS AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY 200-300J/KG MLCAPE), PRECLUDING A SEVERE
HAIL THREAT. GIVEN STRONG MIXING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, DCAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH ROUGHLY 500-800J/KG SUGGESTING
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. LASTLY, EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30-
40KTS SUGGEST THAT SOME STORMS MAY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE.
IF ANY STORM REMAINS LONG-LIVED, A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP, THOUGH EXACT LOCATION AND CERTAINTY OF THIS SOLUTION
REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS COOLER H7 TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 6000-7000FT AREAWIDE. FAVORABLE
FORCING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME, KEEPING SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN UT MOUNTAINS MORE MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SHOWING NEAR ZERO PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 6", OTHER THAN THE
UPPER COTTONWOODS WHERE PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO ~70%. HOWEVER,
CHANCES FOR 12" OF SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS THE UPPER COTTONWOODS IS
NEAR ZERO FOR THIS EVENT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN UT MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONGER ASCENT WILL
FAVOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES FOR 6"
OF SNOW OR GREATER WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE TUSHARS AND
BRIAN HEAD, RANGING FROM 60-80%. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR 12" OF SNOW OR
GREATER IS CONFINED TO ~10% AT BRIAN HEAD AND 40-50% ACROSS THE
TUSHARS.
MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS (ROUGHLY 5-10F) FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH D7 OTHER THAN WEDNESDAY WHEN TRANSIENT RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING LOCALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT VALLEYS. BE SURE TO
PROTECT GARDENS OR OTHER SENSITIVE AGRICULTURE EACH EVENING, IF
NEEDED.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PNW,
DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE H7 TEMPERATURES (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE)
FALL TO ROUGHLY -9C TO -13C FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SOME TIME THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, AMPLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN UT MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND POTENTIALLY SOME VALLEY SNOW AS WELL ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT. WHILE SPECIFICS NEED FINE-TUNED AS VALLEY
SNOW IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS RANGE, ENSEMBLE
CONSISTENCY DOES RAISE SOME EYEBROWS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR EXAMPLE, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING RANGES FROM 40-60%. THIS WILL
ABSOLUTELY CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR, PARTICULARLY DUE TO
GLOBAL MODEL GRID SPACING NOT RESOLVING VALLEYS NEARLY AS WELL,
THOUGH THIS IS QUITE AN INTERESTING SIGNAL AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING TRENDS WITH THIS UPCOMING STORM.
LASTLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. A VERY WIDESPREAD
SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 32F DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH NBM INDICATING GREATER THAN 90% PROBABILITIES OF
THIS OCCURRING ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, OTHER THEN
THE I-15 CORRIDOR RANGING FROM PROVO TO OGDEN AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST UT WHERE PROBABILITIES CAP AROUND 60%. CHANCES ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED I-15 CORRIDOR REMAIN SIMILAR FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH PROBABILITIES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UT AS THE COLD AIRMASS LINGERS. IF THIS FULLY
MATERIALIZES, IT WOULD RESULT IN A HARD-FREEZE AND BE MUCH MORE
IMPACTFUL TO GARDENS AND OTHER SENSITIVE AGRICULTURE. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, THOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED COLDER
ACROSS THE MOST RECENT FORECAST CYCLES PRECEDING THIS ONE.
AVIATION...KSLC
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21-
23Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE/HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE NOTICEABLE
EMBEDDED IN THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A BREAK IN ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BRING
GUSTY SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL AS IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN
ARRIVAL GATES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35-45KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE IN PRONE AREAS IN WESTERN UT, REDUCING VIS
TO MVFR AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z, HIGHER COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN
UT AFTER 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
UTAH OVERNIGHT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THERE, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM REINVIGORATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ102-115-116-
118>120-122-126>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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