805
FXUS65 KSLC 281731
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1131 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE ROUND TONIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURE FOR SENSITIVE AG
AREAS, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-25%) OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- THE NEXT OF DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVES IN NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST
STORM CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS NOTABLE FRESH
SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD DUSTING OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING INCLUDING THE I-80
CORRIDOR. SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING AROUND ALL HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH MORE PRONOUNCED
ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80 INCLUDING A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON THE NORTHERN
UTAH RADAR. ON A LARGER SCALE, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A CIRCULATION
CENTER UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA OVER THE BAY AREA OF CALIFORNIA AND
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE VANCOUVER ISLAND VICINITY.
GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING AND THE TYPE OF SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MARCH. THE LOW CENTER
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY AREA WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY (AS IT WEAKENS) FOLLOWED BY THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW WAVE
SETTLING IN OVER UTAH THURSDAY. THUS, EXPECTING DAILY BUILDUPS OF
SHALLOW CUMULUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW RAIN/GRAUPEL
SHOWERS, BUT LOW CHANCES (GENERALLY 15% OR LESS) OF LIGHTNING.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WITH
MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-15.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
ATTEMPTING TO CLOSE OFF AROUND CENTRAL UTAH, ONE NOTEWORTHY ASPECT
IS THE NORTHEASTERLY TO EVEN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT DEVELOPS OVER
FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION SETS UP A PATTERN THAT IS VAGUELY SIMILAR TO PAST
DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIMES FOR THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT. LOOKING AT
A LOCAL FORECAST TOOL BASED ON PAST RESEARCH INTO SUCH EVENTS AND
APPLYING THE FORECASTED PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM A FEW
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, IT SUGGESTS A 10-25% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE.
CURRENT WIND PROBS FROM THE NBM ARE ALSO BELOW SIGNIFICANT
THRESHOLDS. WHILE THIS DOES NOT MEET THE 33% THRESHOLD FOR US TO
MESSAGE THE THREAD IN OUR WEATHER RISK OUTLOOK, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE POTENTIAL OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND
EVENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, AND OF
COURSE THE TRACK OF SPRINGTIME CLOSED LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY FINICKY
TO FORECAST.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD OVER UTAH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND FROM THE RECENT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. SOME THREAT OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS RETURNS
TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE SUNDAY THOUGH AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW,
THIS TIME MUCH LARGER IN SCALE, DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND SETS UP GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS SURPRISING
CONSISTENCY AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE,
SUGGESTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT INTO OUR REGION AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE
LAST DEEP CLOSED LOW EARLY THIS WEEK IS THIS NEXT ROUND WILL BE
WARMER, WITH TEMPERATURES TRACKING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (IT WILL BE
MAY BY THAT POINT IN FACT) AND SNOW LEVELS MORE IN THE 8 TO
9,000' RANGE.
AVIATION
KSLC..VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. PERIODIC CEILINGS AT AROUND 6000-
7000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PARK
VALLEY TO KAMAS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. ASIDE FROM
BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS NEAR THESE SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
UTZ114>116-118-119-122.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...VAN CLEAVE
AVIATION...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page